国药股份：1H24部分子公司拖累业绩增速

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy [2] - Target Price: RMB 40.58 [2] Core Views - The company's 1H24 performance was impacted by some subsidiaries, but overall investment income showed stable growth [4] - The company maintains a leading market share in the distribution of narcotic drugs, and its financial indicators are strong, supporting a long-term growth outlook despite short-term fluctuations [3][6] - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is RMB 3.12, RMB 3.46, and RMB 3.79 respectively, with a projected PE of 13x for 2024 [3][6] Financial Performance Summary - 1H24 revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were RMB 24.757 billion, RMB 1.001 billion, and RMB 1.003 billion, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 2.6%, 1.6%, and 5.5% [3] - 2Q24 revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were RMB 12.634 billion, RMB 541 million, and RMB 545 million, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.16%, -5.10%, and +1.22% [3] - The company’s investment income from joint ventures was RMB 240 million, a 10% increase year-on-year [4] Cost and Margin Analysis - The overall expense ratio decreased year-on-year in 1H24, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 1.57%, 0.81%, 0.12%, and -0.21% respectively [5] - The gross margin for 1H24 was 7.08%, slightly down by 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [5] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is RMB 2.355 billion, RMB 2.611 billion, and RMB 2.859 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, 10.9%, and 9.5% [6][13] - The projected PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 11x, 10x, and 9x respectively [6][13]