中国重汽：深度研究报告：国之重汽，内外兼修

Investment Rating - Strong Buy (首次) with a target price of 18.6 RMB, representing a 27% upside from the current price of 14.60 RMB [1][8] Core Views - The heavy truck industry is in a clear upward trend since 2022, with 2023 sales rebounding to 900,000 units, a 35% YoY increase, driven by exports and natural gas heavy trucks [1][6] - The company, as a domestic heavy truck leader, is expected to see net profits of 1.45 billion, 1.82 billion, and 2.25 billion RMB in 2024-2026, with YoY growth of 35%, 25%, and 23% respectively [8] - The company's market share in the heavy truck sector has stabilized at around 14%, with the group's share reaching 26% in 2023 [62][63] Industry Analysis - Heavy truck sales are expected to reach 980,000, 1.04 million, and 1.11 million units in 2024-2026, with YoY growth of 7%, 6%, and 7% respectively [1][6] - Natural gas heavy trucks saw a penetration rate of 16% in 2023, with sales expected to grow further due to favorable economic conditions and policy support [44][46] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to drive the replacement of 40,000-90,000 National III heavy trucks in 2024 [51][52] Company Analysis Market Position - The company's market share in the heavy truck sector has remained stable at around 14% since 2021, with the group's share increasing to 26% in 2023 [62][63] - The company is focusing on natural gas heavy trucks in 2024, with its market share expected to rise significantly [62][67] - The company's new energy heavy truck market share is steadily increasing, with sales expected to double in 2024 [67][69] Product Portfolio - The company offers a comprehensive range of heavy trucks, including tractors, dump trucks, and mixers, under brands like HOWO and Yellow River [69] - HOWO covers five major vehicle categories, making it the most extensive product line among commercial vehicle brands [69] - The Yellow River brand focuses on high-end logistics and transportation, with the X7 series being a key product [69] Engine and Technology - The company benefits from advanced engine technologies through its collaboration with MAN and Weichai, offering both global and domestic engine options [7][69] - The company has been optimizing its competitiveness through internal reforms since 2019, improving market performance and management efficiency [7][69] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2023 was 42.07 billion RMB, with a YoY growth of 46%, and net profit reached 1.08 billion RMB, a 405.5% YoY increase [2][8] - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 48.45 billion, 54.75 billion, and 62.49 billion RMB in 2024-2026, with YoY growth of 15.2%, 13.0%, and 14.1% respectively [2][8]