Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 31.02 CNY, based on a valuation of 33 times the expected earnings for 2024 [3]. Core Views - The oral care industry shows stability and growth potential, with the market size expanding from 38.85 billion CNY in 2017 to 49.15 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4% [1][28]. - The company, known for its Cold Acid Spirit brand, has seen revenue and net profit grow at CAGRs of 9.9% and 22.3% respectively from 2019 to 2023, while increasing its market share [1][11]. - The company has significantly invested in e-commerce channels, achieving a CAGR of 53.2% from 2020 to 2023, while maintaining a broad offline channel presence [1][15]. Company Overview - The company specializes in sensitive toothpaste and has a strong brand presence, with a product matrix covering adult and children's oral care, oral medical and beauty care products, and electric oral care products [5][7]. - Revenue increased from 0.94 billion CNY in 2019 to 1.38 billion CNY in 2023, with a stable growth trajectory supported by product structure optimization [11][13]. Industry Analysis - The toothpaste market is stable with a size of 30.22 billion CNY in 2023, growing at a CAGR of approximately 2.1% from 2017 to 2023 [2][31]. - The market share is concentrated, with the top brands like Yunnan Baiyao and Cold Acid Spirit gaining ground, while foreign brands are losing market share [2][44]. Company Analysis - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, with a significant push towards high-end products, which are expected to enhance profitability [3][17]. - The e-commerce channel has become a major growth driver, with the gross margin for this channel improving from 32% in 2021 to 45.9% in 2023 [17][20]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve a net profit CAGR of 18% from 2024 to 2026, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.94 CNY, 1.13 CNY, and 1.33 CNY for the respective years [3][11].
登康口腔：产品升级+渠道突围，老牌国货迎来成长新动能