NANSHAN ALUMINIUM(SH:600219) Soochow Securities·2024-08-22 19:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported significant year-on-year growth in its 2024 semi-annual report, with revenue reaching 15.667 billion yuan, up 8.05% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.189 billion yuan, up 66.68%, exceeding the upper limit of the pre-announcement [3] - The increase in alumina prices has positively impacted the company's performance, with expectations of continued profitability from its Indonesian alumina project and growth in high-end aluminum processing businesses [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 15.667 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.05%, and a net profit of 2.189 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.68% [3] - For Q2 2024, revenue was 8.443 billion yuan, up 10.14% year-on-year and 16.88% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit at 1.338 billion yuan, up 68.45% year-on-year and 59.65% quarter-on-quarter [3] Alumina Price Impact - The price of alumina has further increased in the first half of 2024, with the average overseas alumina market price around 403 USD/ton, up 14% year-on-year [3] - The company's Indonesian alumina project is expected to produce no less than 1 million tons in the first half of 2024, with projected profits exceeding 1,300 yuan/ton in Q2 2024 [3] Dividend Policy - The company announced a semi-annual dividend plan, distributing 0.04 yuan per share, with a dividend payout ratio of 21.4% [3] - A three-year dividend plan was also released, committing to distribute at least 40% of the annual distributable profits in cash from 2024 to 2026 [3] Future Growth Drivers - The company is set to benefit from a 20,000-ton increase in automotive sheet capacity in 2024, with a current market share of approximately 25% in the domestic automotive sheet market [4] - The company has successfully entered the supply chain for the C919 aircraft, with a clear growth trajectory for its aerospace aluminum business [4] - Ongoing projects in Indonesia include a 2 million-ton alumina and 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum capacity, expected to be operational by 2026 [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 4.467 billion, 4.425 billion, and 4.787 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.44, 9.53, and 8.81 times [4]