Peacebird(SH:603877) Guoxin Securities·2024-08-23 00:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][11]. Core Views - The company experienced a 12.7% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of 2024, amounting to 3.15 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 31.7% to 170 million yuan [1][11]. - The company is focusing on channel optimization and has closed inefficient stores, which is expected to improve profitability in the future [1][11]. - The company aims to enhance brand image and store efficiency, adopting a strategy of "reducing floor space, expanding area, and improving efficiency" to lay the foundation for high-quality growth [1][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 7.147 billion yuan, down 8.3% from the previous year, with net profit expected to be 370 million yuan, a decrease of 12.2% [2][12]. - The gross margin is expected to be 53.4% in 2024, slightly down from previous estimates [9][12]. - The sales expense ratio is projected to increase to 37.0% for 2024 due to the impact of declining revenue [9][12]. Store and Channel Strategy - The company has closed 47 direct-operated stores and 146 franchise stores, focusing on improving store quality and profitability [1][11]. - The revenue from direct-operated, franchise, and online channels has decreased by 19.2%, 5.2%, and 8.1% respectively [1][11]. - The company plans to increase the proportion of e-commerce business and expand into new social retail channels while also enhancing offline presence in shopping centers and department stores [1][11]. Profitability Outlook - The company expects profitability to improve in the second half of the year as the pace of store closures slows and the benefits of organizational and product reforms are realized [11]. - The target price has been adjusted to 12.5-13.3 yuan, reflecting a decrease from the previous range of 19.3-20.4 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 16-17x for 2024 [1][11].