lu'an EED(601699) 国泰君安·2024-08-23 02:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to 17.51 yuan, down from 25.89 yuan [2][6] Core Views - The company reported H1 2024 revenue of 17.654 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.33% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.227 billion yuan, down 57.96% YoY [2] - Q2 2024 revenue was 8.995 billion yuan, down 9.96% YoY, and net profit was 939 million yuan, down 50.99% YoY, both below market expectations [2] - The company's coal production in H1 2024 was 27.67 million tons, a decrease of 6.3% YoY, with commercial coal sales of 24.55 million tons, down 10% YoY [2] - The company's Q2 production recovery was significant, with commercial coal production reaching 14.43 million tons, a decrease of only 3% YoY, compared to a 10% decline in Q1 [2] - The report expects the company's production and sales to return to normal levels in Q3, with sales expected to stabilize or grow [2] Financial Performance - The company's average selling price in H1 2024 was 683 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton YoY, but the price pressure eased in Q2, with the average selling price at 677 yuan/ton, down only 3 yuan/ton YoY [2] - The company's cost per ton increased by 44 yuan/ton YoY in Q2, reaching 365 yuan/ton, which significantly impacted profitability [2] - The company's gross profit per ton in Q2 was 312 yuan/ton, down 46.5 yuan/ton YoY [2] - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.67, 2.09, and 2.55 yuan, respectively, with downward revisions of 0.62, 0.50, and 0.37 yuan [2] Industry and Market Context - The company's coal production in Shanxi Province recovered to 114 million tons in June 2024, reaching the 2023 monthly average, indicating a return to normal production levels [2] - The report highlights that the company's production and sales pressure peaked in H1 2024, with expectations of improvement in H2 [2] - The company's resource tax increased in Q2 2024, with the tax rate for raw coal rising from 8% to 10%, and the tax rate for processed coal rising from 6.5% to 9%, leading to an additional tax burden of approximately 250 million yuan per quarter [2] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 37.509 billion, 39.741 billion, and 42.156 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of -13.0%, 6.0%, and 6.1% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.997 billion, 6.248 billion, and 7.629 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with growth rates of -36.9%, 25.0%, and 22.1% [4] - The company's ROE is expected to be 9.9%, 11.7%, and 13.6% for 2024-2026, respectively [4]