从大盘来看，其实今天整体表现较为平淡，盘面上除了医药、PCB和CPO等几个老牌行业和题材之外，其余个 股皆显得有些疲软。但在午后，市场突然迎来了大反攻。而这其中值得一提的是煤炭。 午后，煤炭板块异动明显。煤炭ETF由跌转涨，一度涨近1%。煤炭企稳最大的好处就是能够带动红利ETF企 稳。今早，红利板块一直是压制大盘的主力，红利ETF一度杀跌近0.8%。而午后，随着煤炭板块的走强，红利 ETF跌幅明显收窄。而随着红利企稳，市场就可以放心展开反攻。 煤炭传来大消息！ 7月29日午后，煤炭板块异动明显。煤炭ETF由跌转涨，一度涨近1%，煤炭开采板块普遍走强，潞安环能一度 狂拉近6%。焦煤、焦炭在经历连续大跌之后，亦于午后有明显起色。 煤炭板块之所以会有如此反应，可能与外围突然传来的一则消息有关：受持续高温天气提振空调用电需求、减 少库存的影响，亚洲煤炭价格基准已攀升至五个月高点。澳大利亚纽卡斯尔动力煤期货价格上涨至每吨115.50 美元，为近月合约自今年2月以来的最高水平。值得注意的是，昨晚国际油价也出现了大涨行情。 那么，这种上涨能否持续？ 大反攻 中金公司认为，下半年动力煤价格反弹回升趋势可期。"迎峰度夏"之后的 ...

煤炭 2025 年 07 月 28 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《动力煤和焦煤价格反弹加速，拐 点 右 侧 重 视 煤 炭 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.7.20 《动力煤和焦煤价格持续反弹，拐 点 右 侧 重 视 煤 炭 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.7.13 《油煤比大幅走扩，煤价拐点渐近 重 视 煤 炭 配 置 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.6.15 煤炭基本面利多持续，拐点右侧布局进行时 ——行业点评报告 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：动力煤和焦煤价格持续反弹 动力煤方面：动力煤价格持续反弹，截至 7 月 25 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 653 元/吨，今年上半年最低价格为 609 元，已累计上涨 7.2%。目前动力煤基本面持 续利多：从供给端来看，国内生产方面，截至 7 月 20 日，晋陕蒙三省 442 家煤矿开 工率 81.3% ...

沪指7月28日上涨0.12%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有15个，涨幅居前的行业为国防军工、非银金 融，涨幅分别为1.86%、1.51%。跌幅居前的行业为煤炭、钢铁，跌幅分别为2.60%、1.41%。煤炭行业 位居今日跌幅榜首位。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出185.75亿元，今日有8个行业主力资金净流入，电子行业主力资 金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨1.10%，全天净流入资金36.55亿元，其次是通信行业，日涨幅为 1.24%，净流入资金为28.48亿元。 煤炭行业资金流向排名 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000983 | 山西焦煤 | -6.05 | 3.67 | -17790.28 | | 600157 | 永泰能源 | -3.31 | 3.47 | -14791.79 | | 601699 | 潞安环能 | -2.38 | 4.29 | -10955.17 | | 601666 | 平煤股份 | -5.10 | 2.72 | -5766.98 | | 60012 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] "反内卷"形势下如何分析煤炭空间？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本文基于净资产收益率均值回归视角以及动力煤&焦煤分别在煤电产业链和煤焦钢产业链中利 润分配的合理水平，对未来煤价位置进行测算。权益端，PB 均值回归视角测算股价弹性，当前 主要弹性煤炭标的距离历史 PB 均值仍有不小弹性。因此，我们看好基本面困境改善叠加宏观 预期升温下煤炭攻守兼备的投资性价比。立足基本面，于短期，我们继续看好季节性日耗抬升 与反内卷催化下的动力煤、焦煤季度级别反弹行情，于长期，我们更重视，在反内卷政策逐步 落实之下，叠加后续接力联储降息/国内稳增长政策加码，煤炭板块迎来反转机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.955 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The report highlights a tightening supply side due to government policies aimed at curbing overproduction, which is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [3][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a balanced short-term supply-demand situation and a medium to long-term gap still anticipated [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 26, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 645 CNY/ton, an increase of 11 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is reported at 1650 CNY/ton, up 230 CNY/ton week-on-week [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94%, down 0.6 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 86.9%, up 0.8 percentage points [11][42] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 51,000 tons/day (-13.04%) and in coastal provinces by 19,600 tons/day (-8.1%) [11][42] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in coastal provinces increased by 429,000 tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight increase of 85,000 tons [11] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown strong performance, with the coal mining sector rising by 8.00% this week, outperforming the broader market [15][17] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, which are noted for their stable operations and solid performance [12][13]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 如何量化本次煤矿超产管控潜在影响？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周国家能源局综合司 7 月 10 日印发的《关于组织开展煤矿生产情况核查 促进煤炭供应平稳 有序的通知》在市场广泛传播，点燃煤炭板块"反内卷"交易情绪。如何量化本次煤矿超产管 控潜在影响？通过测算，若本次核查落实到位，下半年主产区边际减产量或达到 1.4 亿吨，占 2024A 全国原煤产量的 3%，供给边际收缩显著，有助于现货煤价反弹至长协价格以上，弹性 想象空间打开。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 如何 ...

Group 1: Metal Sector - China Hongqiao's net profit forecast for 2024 is CNY 223.72 billion, with a PE ratio of 8.14[12] - Hualing Steel's net profit is projected to increase from CNY 20.32 billion in 2024 to CNY 28.54 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 19.72[12] - Xiamen Tungsten's net profit is expected to rise from CNY 17.28 billion in 2024 to CNY 21.01 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 22.97[12] Group 2: Construction and Transportation - Sichuan Road and Bridge's net profit is forecasted to grow from CNY 72.10 billion in 2024 to CNY 82.86 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 10.35[12] - YTO Express's net profit is expected to decrease from CNY 40.12 billion in 2024 to CNY 35.39 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 13.03[12] - China Merchants Highway's net profit is projected to be CNY 55 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 14.56[12] Group 3: Chemical and Energy Sector - Yara International's net profit is expected to rise from CNY 9.50 billion in 2024 to CNY 17.94 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 30.56[12] - Funiu Power's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 28.95 billion, with a PE ratio of 9.18[12] - Huajin's net profit is projected to recover to CNY 0.92 billion in 2025 after a loss of CNY 27.95 billion in 2024[12] Group 4: Strategic Metals and New Materials - Xiamen Tungsten's strategic metal segments are expected to contribute 79% to profits in 2024, with a focus on tungsten and rare earths[21] - Zhongcai Technology's special glass fiber is projected to see significant demand growth due to AI hardware requirements, with expected profits of CNY 0.2 billion in 2024[30] - The company anticipates a profit contribution from special glass fiber of CNY 7.2 billion by 2026[30]

➢ 旺季已至，基建发力，需求有望超预期提升。此前由于用电需求疲弱，煤价 出现大幅下滑，5 月下旬以来火电发电量同比增速已转正并持续提升，7 月上旬 全国发电量同比增速达 7.89%，火电增速达 4.83%，一方面实体用电需求边际好 转，另一方面伴随气温升高，全国电力负荷屡创历史新高，二十五省电厂日耗加 速攀升。同时非电化工需求同比增速从 5 月初的 10%攀升至当前近 20%，环比 仍保持小幅上行。雅下工程开工释放基建发力信号，我们预期后续或有望持续加 大基建投入，从而利好水泥、钢铁、化工行业，提振动力煤及焦煤需求。我们预 计在旺季和政策利好的共同驱动下，需求有望超预期提升，8 月中旬价格高点有 望突破 750 元/吨，下半年价格中枢有望维持 700 元/吨左右。板块方面，当前 煤价已进入加速上行通道，业绩稳健、高现货比例标的弹性更为充足。 ➢ 投资建议：标的方面，我们推荐以下投资主线：1）业绩稳健、成长型标的， 建议关注晋控煤业、华阳股份。2）高现货比例弹性标的，建议关注潞安环能。 3）产量恢复性增长，建议关注山煤国际。4）行业龙头业绩稳健，建议关注陕西 煤业、中国神华、中煤能源。5）受益核电增长，强α稀缺 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have rebounded significantly, with the central price level continuing to rise. Domestic power plants have increased daily coal consumption, leading to further price increases for both coking coal and thermal coal. The report emphasizes that the industry is supported by both policy and fundamental factors, maintaining a "Positive" rating for the coal sector [6][41]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 8% compared to a 1.69% rise in the index, resulting in a 6.31 percentage point outperformance. A total of 37 stocks in the sector saw price increases, with Lu'an Huanneng showing the highest weekly gain of 31.22% [2]. Key Data on Coal Sales and Inventory - The average daily coal sales for monitored enterprises from July 18 to July 24, 2025, were 7.14 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.4% but a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The total coal inventory (including port storage) was 30.55 million tons, down 2.3% week-on-week but up 20.5% year-on-year [2][8]. Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of July 25, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 664 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15%. The inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 5.85 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [3]. Coking Coal Industry Chain - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1,650 CNY/ton, up 16.2% week-on-week. The inventory at Jingtang Port decreased by 11.16% week-on-week, while the total inventory at independent coking plants increased by 56.27% [4]. Coal Chemical Industry Chain - The price of Yanquan anthracite coal remained stable at 820 CNY/ton. The methanol market price in East China rose to 2,476.14 CNY/ton, an increase of 100.91 CNY/ton week-on-week [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies undergoing turnaround. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Huainan Mining for thermal coal, and Huai Bei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [6][41].

供给收缩预期升温，煤价反弹支撑强劲 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 07 月 26 日 评级： 增持（维持） 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 18,162.14 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 17,743.63 | 动力仍强》2025-07-19 弹有望超预期》2025-07-12 "反内卷"政策落地》2025-07-05 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2 ...