Sinotruk Jinan Truck (SZ:000951) Minsheng Securities·2024-08-23 02:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 14.36 yuan on August 22, 2024, corresponding to PE ratios of 12, 9, and 8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported H1 2024 revenue of 24.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 619 million yuan, up 24.68% year-on-year [1]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to boost domestic demand, with a potential increase in heavy truck sales driven by subsidies for replacing old operational trucks [1]. - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks is increasing significantly, with sales in July reaching 18,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 68.9% [1]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.974 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.54% [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 7.17%, with a net profit margin of 3.68%, reflecting stable profitability despite accounting changes [1]. - The company’s R&D expenses remain high, contributing to a decrease in expense ratios quarter-on-quarter [1]. Sales and Market Outlook - The company sold 70,537 heavy trucks in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.78%, positioning it to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy in the second half of the year [1]. - The report forecasts revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 49.8 billion, 61.1 billion, and 69.1 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 1.883 billion, 2.454 billion, and 2.928 billion yuan [2][4].