Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [3] Core Views - Strategic transformation has shown significant results, with both quality and efficiency improving notably, leading to a substantial increase in profitability [3] - Channel expansion has yielded initial results, with a significant increase in cargo volume: H1 2024 cargo volume reached 6.42 million tons, up 20.5% YoY, with Q2 cargo volume at 3.55 million tons, up 19.5% YoY and 23.3% QoQ [3] - Cost optimization has been effective, with H1 2024 cost per ton decreasing by 8% YoY to 687 yuan, and Q2 cost per ton at 681 yuan, down 6% YoY and 2% QoQ [4] - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of 848 million yuan, 1.027 billion yuan, and 1.179 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.3x, 7.7x, and 6.7x [4] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached 5.289 billion yuan, up 16.2% YoY, with adjusted net profit of 430 million yuan, up 82.4% YoY [3] - Q2 2024 revenue was 2.911 billion yuan, up 17.1% YoY and 22.4% QoQ, with adjusted net profit of 221 million yuan, up 38.6% YoY and 5.8% QoQ [3] - Revenue growth is expected to be 17.4% in 2024, 10.7% in 2025, and 8.7% in 2026, with gross margins of 16%, 16%, and 17%, respectively [5] - Adjusted EPS is forecasted to be 0.63 yuan, 0.77 yuan, and 0.89 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] Operational Highlights - The company has over 31,000 freight partners and agents as of June 2024, up from over 28,000 in June 2023 [3] - LTL (Less Than Truckload) revenue per ton was 824 yuan in H1 2024, down 4% YoY, with Q2 LTL revenue per ton at 821 yuan, down 2% YoY and 1% QoQ [3] - The company has implemented cost-oriented pricing strategies and the "3300 Product Policy," which waives special area surcharges for goods weighing between 3 kg and 300 kg [3] Cost Optimization - H1 2024 cost per ton was 687 yuan, down 8% YoY, with Q2 cost per ton at 681 yuan, down 6% YoY and 2% QoQ [4] - Line-haul transportation cost in Q2 was 303 yuan per ton, down 2% QoQ, and distribution center cost was 139 yuan per ton, down 20% YoY and 8% QoQ [4] - Cost improvements are expected to continue due to scale growth and base effects [4] Valuation and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of 848 million yuan, 1.027 billion yuan, and 1.179 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - ROE is forecasted to be 23%, 22%, and 20% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - Adjusted P/E ratios are expected to be 9.3x, 7.7x, and 6.7x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]
安能物流：战略转型成效显著，质效双升盈利提升明显