EVE(SZ:300014) Soochow Securities·2024-08-23 03:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see improved profitability in the second half of 2024, driven by full production and sales in the energy storage sector [3] - The company has experienced a decline in gross margin in Q2, with performance falling short of market expectations [3] - Energy storage shipments are projected to reach 85 GWh for the year, with significant growth anticipated in both energy storage and power battery segments [3][4] - The company is expected to stabilize domestic energy storage prices in H2, contributing to a recovery in profitability [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for H1 2024 was 21.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.1 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year [3] - Q2 revenue was 12.3 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 32% [3] - The gross margin for Q2 was 15.6%, with a net profit margin of 8.7% [3] - Energy storage revenue for H1 was 7.8 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year, while power battery revenue was 9 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year [3] - The company expects to achieve a total revenue of 51.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.65% [2] Shipment and Market Position - The company achieved energy storage shipments of 21.0 GWh in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 133%, and power battery shipments of 13.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 7% [3] - The company holds the second-largest global market share in energy storage, with a strong demand for commercial vehicles [3] - The company anticipates a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase in shipments for Q3 2024, with total shipments expected to reach 85 GWh for the year [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - The average selling price for energy storage in Q2 was 0.42 yuan/Wh, down 53% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 14.4% [3] - The company expects to achieve a unit profit of 0.01-0.02 yuan/Wh for the full year, contributing over 1 billion yuan to profits [3] - The company reported a significant increase in gross margin for consumer batteries, reaching 28.3% in H1 2024 [4] Valuation and Future Outlook - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 4.71 billion, 5.76 billion, and 7 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16%, 22%, and 22% [3] - The target price for the company is set at 51 yuan, based on a 22x P/E ratio for 2024 [3]