舍得酒业2024Q2点评：静待市场修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is facing challenges due to macroeconomic conditions but is proactively managing inventory and pricing strategies to maintain its market position. The product "舍之道/T68" is expected to contribute positively to revenue as the industry demand recovers [1][3] - The company reported a total revenue of 1.165 billion yuan in Q2 2024, a decrease of 22.61% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 41 million yuan, down 88.40% [1] - For H1 2024, total revenue was 3.271 billion yuan, a decline of 7.28%, with a net profit of 591 million yuan, down 35.73% [1] Revenue Analysis - In Q2 2024, revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor decreased by 19.3% and 47.3% respectively, with mid-to-high-end liquor accounting for 85.7% of total liquor revenue, an increase of 6.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Regionally, revenue from domestic and foreign liquor in Q2 2024 fell by 18.2% and 28.4% respectively, with domestic revenue contributing significantly to overall sales [1] Profitability Insights - The gross margin in Q2 2024 decreased by 10.95 percentage points to 60.93%, primarily due to a shift in product mix [1] - The net profit margin for Q2 2024 was 3.64%, down 19.7 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by increased sales and management expenses [1] Financial Forecast - The company expects to achieve total revenues of 6.659 billion yuan, 7.006 billion yuan, and 7.719 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year changes of -6.0%, +5.2%, and +10.2% [2][3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.205 billion yuan, 1.315 billion yuan, and 1.517 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting year-on-year changes of -31.9%, +9.1%, and +15.4% [2][3]