劲仔食品2024Q2点评：线下稳健增长，利润弹性兑现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in offline sales, with profit elasticity being realized. The second quarter of 2024 saw total revenue of 590 million yuan, an increase of 20.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 70 million yuan, up 58.74% [1] - The company is expected to maintain a strong performance in the second half of 2024, with online business adjustments nearing completion and new product launches anticipated to improve sales [1] Revenue Analysis - In Q2 2024, revenue from fish products is expected to grow by 16% year-on-year, while quail egg sales are projected to exceed 30 million monthly due to the release of production capacity from the Beihai factory. For the first half of 2024, revenue from fish products and poultry products increased by 16.64% and 51.10% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Offline business revenue is expected to grow by 30% year-on-year in Q2 2024, while online business revenue is projected to decline by 10% year-on-year, still undergoing adjustments. The company anticipates improvements in online sales in the second half of the year [1] Profit Analysis - In Q2 2024, the company's gross profit margin increased by 4.25 percentage points to 30.76%, primarily due to a decrease in the costs of anchovy and quail eggs. The net profit margin also rose by 2.83 percentage points to 11.97% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares for the first half of 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 31.25% based on net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 2.065 billion yuan, 2.549 billion yuan, and 3.136 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.4%, 23.0%, and 22.8% [3][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 210 million yuan, 292 million yuan, and 375 million yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.2%, 28.7%, and 25.3% [3][4]