东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 经济要闻 1.国家能源局：发布 6 月份全社会用电量等数据。6 月份，全社会用电量 8670 亿千瓦时，同比增长 5.4%。从分产业用电看，第一产业用电量 133 亿千瓦时，同比增长 4.9%；第二产业用电量 5488 亿千瓦时，同比增长 3.2%； 第三产业用电量 1758 亿千瓦时，同比增长 9.0%；城乡居民生活用电量 1291 亿千瓦时，同比增长 10.8%。（资料来源：同花顺） 2.中国央行：7 月贷款市场报价利率（LPR）报价出炉，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.5%，上月为 3.5%。1 年期 LPR 为 3%，上月为 3%。（资料来源：同花顺） 3.美国政府：马斯克与总统关系破裂后，美国政府已开始审查马斯克的太 空探索技术公司（SpaceX）与多个联邦政府机构之间的合同，试图找出价 值数十亿美元的交易中存在的"潜在浪费"，其中包括与国防部和 NASA 相 关的交易。初步评估显示，由于 SpaceX 在火箭发射和低轨卫星服务方面 处于主导地位，大多数政府合同难以取消。（资料来源：同花顺、央视新 闻） 4.交通运输部：7 月 21 日，交通运输部部长刘伟在国新办举行的 ...

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《白酒压力显现 食品分化加剧—— 食品 饮料 2025 年中报业绩前瞻 》 2025/07/18 《茅台完成半年经营任务 食品中期业绩分 化——食品饮料行业周报 20250707- 20250711》 2025/07/12 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230524090001 yanzn@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2025 年 07 月 19 日 6 月餐饮增速放缓 关注白酒渠道创 王栗晴 (8621)23297818× wanglq@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 新 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20250714-20250718 ⚫ 投资分析 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 7 月 9 日星期三 经济要闻 1. 国家发改委：新增 100 亿元以工代赈投资助力重点群体就业。国家发展改 革委日前新增下达 100 亿元中央预算内投资，支持 26 个省（区、市）和新疆 生产建设兵团实施 1975 个以工代赈项目。这批项目预计发放劳务报酬 45.9 亿元，带动 31 万名重点人群就业，包括脱贫人口、返乡农民工等群体。项目 劳务报酬占中央投资比例提高至不低于 40%，重点实施村道巷道硬化等劳动 密集型工程。截至 6 月底，2025 年度以工代赈中央投资累计达 295 亿元，预 计带动 70 余万名困难群众就业，发放劳务报酬超 110 亿元。下一步，国家发 改委将推动项目全部开工建设，强化重点群体就业保障。（资料来源：同花顺） 数据来源：《七月金股汇》 2025 年 06 月 29 日， 东兴证券研究所 2.发改委等三部门：通过地方政府专项债券资金等支持符合条件的零碳园区 项目。发改委等三部门印发开展零碳园区建设的通知，统筹利用现有资金渠 道支持零碳园区建设，鼓励各地区对零碳园区建设给予资金支持，通过地方 政府专项债券资金等支持符合条件的项目。鼓励 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月07日 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 吴康辉 S0630525060001 wkh@longone.com.cn -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 食品饮料(申万) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] [Table_NewTitle 重视新品类和新渠道下的α机会 ] ——食品饮料行业周报（2025/6/30-2025/7/6） 超配 [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 风险提示：宏观经济增长不及预期；竞争加剧的影响；食品安全的影响。 行 业 研 究 食 品 饮 料 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 周 报 [table_invest] 1.政策纠偏情绪修复，聚焦供需改善 方 向 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2025/ ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 3.商务部等 9 部门：联合印发《2025 年家政兴农行动工作方案》。该方案从四 个方面提出 14 项具体任务，旨在扩大家政服务供给，促进家政服务消费，助 力乡村振兴。主要措施包括：支持农村劳动力在家政领域就业，开展生活服 务招聘季活动；提升就业能力，推进家政服务员技能升级和职业教育发展； 完善就业保障，加强住房保障和基本公共服务；优化创业就业服务，支持重 点群体就业创业。下一步，商务部将联合相关部门推动政策落实，充分发挥 家政服务业在惠民生、稳就业、促消费方面的重要作用。（资料来源：同花顺） 4.中国人民银行：开展 1065 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作。人民银行 7 日公告称， 以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1065 亿元逆回购操作，中标利率为 1.4%。 今日公开市场有 3315 亿元逆回购到期，净回笼 2250 亿元。（资料来源：同花 顺） 5.三大交易所：正式实施程序化交易监管新规。7 月 7 日起，沪深北三大交易 所《程序化交易管理实施细则》正式实施，重点强化高频交易监管。新规明 确了四类异常交易行为认定标准，包括瞬时申报速率异常、频繁瞬时撤单等， 并将单账户每秒申报 ...

● 2025年以来，消费复苏缓慢，传统食品饮料需求承压，细分板块呈现结构性机会。建议优先关注成长性较强的零食，以及处于 向上修复阶段的啤酒和乳制品。 ● 啤酒：需求边际改善，成本下行释放利润弹性。2024年终端消费较弱，啤酒龙头推进渠道库存去化，库存水平处于历史低位， 板块估值回落至5年低分位。2025年1-5月社零餐饮收入同比有所改善，在旺季低基数和消费政策刺激下，啤酒销售数据修复确 定性较高，有望催化估值抬升。另外成本仍处于下行周期，叠加产品结构持续优化，利润弹性可期。建议关注生鲜高端化优势突 出，盈利改善稳健的青岛啤酒和成长势能强劲的燕京啤酒。 ● 零食：品类与渠道共振，高成长延续。零食板块呈现高景气度和高成长性，强品类与新渠道持续催化。从产品来看，消费者需求 升级趋势明显，健康功能性零食备受关注，以魔芋为代表的产品快速出圈，兼具健康属性和味觉体验，实现高增。从渠道来看， 零食量贩跑马圈地后，两大龙头占据主要市场份额。此外，会员商超渠道崛起，选品引领行业潮流，成为各大零食企业新的发力 点。建议关注盐津铺子、劲仔食品。 ● 乳制品：供需格局逐步改善，静待周期拐点到来。生鲜乳价格持续创年内新低，奶牛养殖亏损 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for structural growth opportunities [20][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a stabilization in the price of Moutai, suggesting a potential improvement in sentiment within the liquor sector. It notes that while short-term demand fluctuations may lead to a slowdown in the liquor sector in Q2 2025, leading companies are working to maintain price stability, and smaller companies are adapting to consumer trends [20][21]. - The snack segment is experiencing stable performance in traditional channels, with rapid growth in membership supermarket channels. New products are expected to be launched in the second half of 2025, and the pet food sector is also showing good growth [20][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product quality enhancement, channel expansion, and innovative marketing strategies as key methods for companies to navigate current market challenges [20][21]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Luzhou Laojiao is improving market inventory and plans to expand its distribution network to four million terminals over the next five years. The company is also developing lower-alcohol products [11][12]. - Yanghe Co. has appointed new leadership, which is expected to drive organizational adjustments and enhance operational dynamics. The company continues to innovate its product line [12]. - Jiugui Liquor is focusing on channel adjustments and has partnered with a retail chain to explore new growth avenues [13]. - New Dairy is benefiting from cost advantages, leading to stronger profit release capabilities, with a focus on low-temperature milk products [14]. - Jinzai Food is in a cautious operational phase, with stable performance in traditional and snack channels [15][16]. - Zhongchong Co. is seeing continued growth in its self-owned brands, despite some export challenges [17]. - Petty Co. is expanding its product offerings in both snacks and staple foods, with a focus on New Zealand's production capacity [18]. - Anji Food has successfully listed its H shares, raising approximately 2.302 billion HKD [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on growth sectors influenced by changing consumer trends, with specific recommendations for companies like Zhongchong Co., Guobao Pet Food, and Nongfu Spring [21]. - It also highlights structural growth opportunities in the restaurant chain recovery, recommending companies such as Zhujiang Beer and Yanjing Beer [21]. - For traditional consumer goods, it advises investing in leading liquor companies and dairy products, with a focus on companies like Yili and New Dairy [21]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is characterized by a total of 143 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 478.1 billion RMB [4]. - The industry has shown a mixed performance, with a 1-month absolute performance of -4.7% and a 12-month performance of 28.2% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, suggesting a bottoming opportunity for investment in high-end liquor brands and potential cyclical recovery in beer and yellow wine sectors [2][11][12]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on sales due to external risks and a need for demand improvement, with expectations for the price of original box Feitian Moutai to stabilize around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The beer industry is showing signs of stabilization with a recovery in dining demand and potential for high-frequency sales tracking, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming peak season [3][12]. - The yellow wine sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and market promotion efforts by leading brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][13]. - The snack food industry remains robust, driven by channel expansion and new product penetration, with expectations for continued high growth in Q2 [3][12]. - The soft drink sector is seeing demand improvement driven by health-oriented and functional beverages, with a positive outlook for brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [4][14]. - The seasoning industry is stabilizing at a low point, with growth relying on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant sector [5][15]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Feitian Moutai's original box price is stable between 1900-1950 RMB, with expectations for a price stabilization around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The industry is under pressure, but the market's expectations for short-term performance have been adequately priced in, suggesting a potential for recovery [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to stabilize with a recovery in dining demand and increased focus on non-drinking channels [3][12]. - The industry is positioned for a favorable performance in the upcoming peak season, with anticipated steady mid-year earnings [3][12]. Yellow Wine Industry - The trend towards premiumization is becoming a consensus among leading brands, with increased marketing efforts and a focus on younger consumers [3][13]. Snack Food Industry - The snack food sector is maintaining high growth due to channel expansion and new product introductions, with Q2 performance expected to continue the positive trend [3][12]. Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink market is improving, driven by health and functional beverages, with brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring expected to perform well [4][14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing, with growth dependent on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant industry [5][15].

魔芋等创新产品上新提速，胖东来验证健 康标签 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025–2027 年 EPS 分别为 0.74/ 0.84/ 1.00 元（原 25/26 年预测值为 0.79/0.98 元）下调 25–26 年盈利预测，主要反映以下两点：一是 2025Q1 业绩短 期承压，毛利率略降而销售及财务费用率同比提升，显示费用投放节奏相对前置； 二是公司持续加码新品研发、品牌投入与渠道深化（如胖东来、高端会员店等）， 短期内对盈利形成阶段性扰动。考虑长期成长逻辑未改，参考可比公司估值水平， 给予公司 2025 年 20 倍 PE，对应目标价 14.8 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 居民消费力不及预期；行业竞争加剧风险；渠道拓展不及预期风险；原材料价格波动等 风险等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,065 | 2,412 | 2,816 | 3,248 | 3,713 | | 同比增长 (%) | 4 ...

Group 1 - The establishment of the Beihai Leisure Food Smart Industrial Park marks an important step in the national industrial layout of Jinzhai Food, injecting new momentum into the food industry development in Beihai and Guangxi [2] - The project has a total planned investment of 280 million yuan and is expected to create approximately 1,000 jobs [2] - The park will primarily produce leisure fish products, poultry and egg products, and leisure vegetarian food, aiming to create a modern leisure food base integrating R&D, production, and sales [2][3] Group 2 - Jinzhai Food has achieved its first "three-year doubling" development goal post-listing in 2023, with revenue and net profit both doubling compared to 2020 [3] - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 2.412 billion yuan and a net profit of 291 million yuan, maintaining a growth rate among the top in the A-share leisure food sector [3] - The smart industrial park aims to become a leading research and production hub for leisure food, focusing on high-quality protein health products and promoting the transformation of production towards informatization, intelligence, and health [3]