平煤股份：公司半年报点评：24Q2经营稳中向好，长期投资价值不改

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company's net profit for 2024 is expected to decline by 30%, but performance in 2024 is anticipated to stabilize [2] - The company has shown a significant recovery in production in Q2 2024, indicating a positive operational outlook [6] - The controlling shareholder plans to increase holdings by 300 to 600 million yuan, reflecting confidence in the company's future development [6] - The company is the largest producer and supplier of low-sulfur premium coking coal in China, with expectations for high long-term coking coal prices [7] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.7%, with revenue of 16.25 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.8% [6] - Q2 2024 saw a net profit of 650 million yuan, down 40% year-on-year and 11.9% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The average selling price of commodity coal in H1 2024 was 1,088 yuan per ton, up 9.3% year-on-year, while the average cost was 772 yuan per ton, up 13.4% [6] - The company's gross profit margin in H1 2024 was 29.1%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [6] Production and Sales - In H1 2024, the company produced 14.21 million tons of raw coal and 6.59 million tons of clean coal, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% and an increase of 6.6%, respectively [6] - In Q2 2024, the company’s self-produced coal output was 7.58 million tons, with sales of 6.58 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.2% in output but a decrease of 13.6% in sales [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to have net profits of 3.425 billion yuan in 2024, 3.798 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.930 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.38, 1.53, and 1.59 yuan [8][11] - The estimated reasonable price range for the company's stock is between 12.69 and 14.28 yuan, based on a PE ratio of 8 to 9 times for 2024 [7][10]