HXG(SH:603112) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-08-23 15:07Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][9]. Core Views - The company's stock incentive unlocking targets are positive, reflecting strong confidence in future performance [2][9]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the consumer goods replacement policy, particularly in its white goods and automotive parts businesses [2][9]. - The white goods segment serves as a foundation for expanding into the automotive parts sector, which is anticipated to become a second growth driver [2][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 16.35 yuan, unchanged from previous forecasts [4][9]. - The current stock price is 10.38 yuan, indicating potential upside [4]. - The company plans to grant 8.829 million restricted shares at a price of 7.88 yuan per share to 277 core employees, representing 2.02% of total shares [9]. - The performance targets for the incentive plan include a net profit of no less than 480 million yuan in 2024, 600 million yuan in 2025, and a cumulative target of 1.08 billion yuan over 2024-2025 [9]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 3.264 billion yuan in 2023, with projections of 4.090 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 25.3% [11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 480 million yuan in 2024, up from 389 million yuan in 2023, indicating a year-on-year growth of 23.4% [11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.10 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.38 yuan in 2025 and 1.60 yuan in 2026 [11]. Market Context - The company has a total market capitalization of 4.538 billion yuan, with a 52-week stock price range of 8.45 to 13.69 yuan [5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from government policies aimed at stimulating demand for white goods and automotive products through replacement incentives [9].