Milkground(600882) 平安证券·2024-08-24 06:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is steadfast in its "focus on cheese" strategy, with significant profit improvement [2] - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1,923 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.93%, but net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 168.77% to 77 million yuan [3] - The company's gross profit margin in H1 2024 was 34.57%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material procurement costs [5] - The net profit margin in H1 2024 was 3.99%, up 1.82 percentage points year-on-year, due to cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures [5] Business Structure Optimization - The company continues to optimize its business structure, focusing on the cheese segment, which accounted for 85% of revenue in H1 2024 [4] - Cheese segment revenue in H1 2024 was 1,631 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.85% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 39.39% [4] - The trade business revenue in H1 2024 was 139 million yuan, a significant decrease of 44.86% year-on-year, but the gross margin improved to 3.01% [4] - Liquid milk business revenue in H1 2024 was 149 million yuan, a decrease of 8.68% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 9.86% [4] Channel Development - In H1 2024, the company's distribution channel revenue was 1,529 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.67% year-on-year [6] - Direct sales channel revenue was 251 million yuan, a decrease of 6.61% year-on-year [6] - The company has 4,790 distributors covering approximately 800,000 retail terminals [6] - The company is actively expanding its online presence on platforms like JD, Tmall, Pinduoduo, and Douyin [6] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 to be 133 million yuan, 164 million yuan, and 191 million yuan, respectively [7] - EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 0.26 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.37 yuan, respectively [7] - The P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is projected to be 48.3x, 39.4x, and 33.8x, respectively [7] - The company's valuation is currently at a historically low level, with a strong likelihood of sequential improvement in fundamentals [7] Financial Ratios - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 29.2% in 2023 to 33.1% in 2026 [9] - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 1.6% in 2023 to 3.8% in 2026 [9] - ROE is expected to rise from 1.5% in 2023 to 4.0% in 2026 [9] - The debt-to-asset ratio is forecasted to decrease from 37.0% in 2023 to 19.3% in 2026 [9]