MANGO(SZ:300413) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-08-24 08:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company's Q2 performance met expectations, with a positive outlook for Q3 and Q4 due to rich content reserves and ongoing improvements in core and new business segments [4][5]. - The total revenue for H1 2024 reached 6.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.06 billion yuan, down 15.5% due to changes in corporate income tax policies [5]. - Membership revenue grew significantly, reaching 2.49 billion yuan, up 26.8% year-on-year, driven by popular shows and an enhanced membership rights system [5]. - Advertising revenue was 1.72 billion yuan, a decline of 3.9%, but the decrease was notably smaller compared to previous periods, indicating a steady recovery [5]. - New business developments showed promise, with profits from Jin Ying Cartoon increasing by approximately 15% and the GMV of Xiaomang E-commerce reaching 6.65 billion yuan, a nearly 50% year-on-year growth [5]. Financial Summary - The company adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.08, 1.32, and 1.50 yuan respectively, maintaining a target price of 33.30 yuan based on a 25X PE for 2025 [5]. - The financial summary indicates a projected revenue growth from 15.62 billion yuan in 2024 to 20.00 billion yuan in 2026, with a net profit forecasted to rise from 2.02 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.80 billion yuan in 2026 [6][14]. - The company’s net asset return is expected to stabilize around 10% by 2026, with a projected net profit margin of approximately 13.7% [14]. Market Data - The current stock price is 19.90 yuan, with a target price of 33.30 yuan, indicating significant upside potential [3][5]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 37.23 billion yuan and a P/E ratio of 18.40 based on the latest diluted shares [7][14]. Content Strategy - The company has a robust content pipeline for Q3 and Q4, with several key shows set to launch, which are expected to drive revenue growth [5]. - The successful launch of popular shows in previous quarters has helped maintain revenue levels despite high base pressures [5]. Conclusion - Overall, the report presents a cautiously optimistic outlook for the company, highlighting its ability to adapt and grow in a competitive market environment while maintaining a solid financial foundation [4][5].