POP MART(09992) 国海证券·2024-08-26 13:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's 2024H1 performance significantly exceeded market expectations, with revenue and profit showing substantial year-over-year growth [5] - Overseas revenue growth and domestic category expansion are key drivers of the company's performance [3][5] - The company's gross margin improved significantly, and cost control was effective [5] - The company's cash position increased, and operational conditions improved [5] - Overseas and Douyin (TikTok) channels contributed significantly to revenue growth [6][7] - The company has diversified its product categories, with blind box sales accounting for less than 60% of total revenue [9] - The company is exploring new business areas such as theme parks and games, expanding IP commercialization [10][11] Market Performance - The company's stock outperformed the Hang Seng Index significantly over the past 12 months, with a 104.1% increase compared to the Hang Seng Index's -1.3% [2] - The company's current stock price is HKD 47.75, with a 52-week price range of HKD 16.90-48.25 [2] - The company's market capitalization is HKD 64,125.54 million, with a daily average trading volume of HKD 381.16 million [2] Financial Performance - 2024H1 revenue reached RMB 4.56 billion (YOY +62%), with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 920 million (YOY +93.3%) [4][5] - Adjusted net profit was RMB 1.02 billion (YOY +90.1%), with an adjusted profit margin of 22.3% (up 3.3 percentage points YoY) [5] - Gross margin increased to 64% (up 3.7 percentage points YoY) [5] - Cash on hand increased to RMB 7.01 billion (YOY +17.6%) [5] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic revenue in 2024H1 was RMB 3.21 billion (YOY +31.5%), accounting for 70.3% of total revenue [3] - Overseas revenue in 2024H1 was RMB 1.35 billion (YOY +259.6%), accounting for 29.7% of total revenue [7] - Online revenue in 2024H1 grew by 34%, with Douyin channel revenue increasing by 90.7% [7] - Offline revenue in 2024H1 grew by 24.7% for stores and 16.2% for robots [3] Product and IP Performance - 7 IPs generated over RMB 100 million in revenue in 2024H1, with MOLLY revenue increasing by 90.1% [9] - Blind box and figurine revenue accounted for 58.3% of total revenue, down 14.2 percentage points YoY [9] - MEGA, plush, and derivative products saw significant revenue growth, with plush revenue increasing by 993.6% [9] - The company launched new product categories such as cards, building blocks, and POP CUBE [9] Expansion and Future Plans - The company plans to open 30-40 new overseas stores in the second half of 2024 [7] - The company is exploring new business areas such as theme parks and games, with the launch of its first mobile game "Dream Home" in June 2024 [10][11] - The company is expanding its IP commercialization through collaborations and pop-up stores [10][11] Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 10.20 billion in 2024, RMB 13.09 billion in 2025, and RMB 15.48 billion in 2026 [12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 2.06 billion in 2024, RMB 2.66 billion in 2025, and RMB 3.18 billion in 2026 [12] - The company's adjusted PE ratio is expected to be 26X in 2024, 20X in 2025, and 17X in 2026 [12]