Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to ZKH (首次覆盖) [1] Core Views - ZKH's scale advantage is driving profit improvement, and the share buyback plan demonstrates confidence in future development [1] - ZKH's platform operations remain stable, with the Gongbangbang platform showing strong growth [2] - Revenue is growing rapidly, with marginal improvement in profit levels [2] - The company has completed multiple rounds of financing, attracting well-known institutions such as Zhongding Capital and Genesis Capital [2] - The share buyback plan reflects management's confidence in the company's long-term development [2] Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, ZKH achieved revenue of 2.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [2] - Non-GAAP adjusted net profit was -35 million yuan, a reduction in loss of 95 million yuan compared to the same period last year [2] - Gross margin was 17.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The ZKH platform's GMV was 2.48 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year, with revenue of 1.893 billion yuan, up 7.8% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 15.5%, up 1.81 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The Gongbangbang platform's GMV was 270 million yuan, up 17.8% year-on-year, with revenue of 270 million yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 5.6%, down 0.29 percentage points year-on-year [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Forecasted revenue for 2024-2026E is 9.77 billion yuan, 10.82 billion yuan, and 11.76 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026E is 86 million yuan, 402 million yuan, and 724 million yuan, respectively [3] - The corresponding P/E ratios are 47.9X, 10.3X, and 5.7X, respectively [3] Valuation Metrics - ROE is expected to improve from -9.5% in 2023A to 16.4% in 2026E [4] - Gross margin is forecasted to increase from 17% in 2023A to 20% in 2026E [5] - Revenue growth rate is projected to be 12% in 2024E, 11% in 2025E, and 9% in 2026E [5] - Net profit growth rate is expected to be 128% in 2024E, 366% in 2025E, and 80% in 2026E [5] Share Buyback Plan - ZKH announced a share buyback plan on June 14, 2024, intending to repurchase up to $50 million worth of ADS within the next 12 months [2]
震坤行：2024年二季报点评：规模优势推动盈利改善，回购计划彰显发展信心