Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [5][6] Core Views - The company's H1 2024 performance fell below expectations due to cautious consumer behavior and a high base effect from the previous year [5] - Revenue for H1 2024 was RMB 1.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 27.8%, with operating profit at RMB 512 million, down 39.4% year-on-year [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 299 million, a year-on-year decrease of 35.7%, with a net profit margin of 27.2%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company is focusing on product optimization and sales strategy adjustments, with pre-need contracts showing strong growth, up 28.6% year-on-year [5] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected to be RMB 2.319 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%, with net profit expected to be RMB 713.72 million, down 9.8% year-on-year [8] - For 2025E, revenue is expected to grow by 11.3% to RMB 2.581 billion, with net profit increasing by 12.9% to RMB 805.54 million [8] - In 2026E, revenue is projected to reach RMB 2.862 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, with net profit expected to grow by 12.1% to RMB 902.89 million [8] - The PE ratio for 2024E is 12.13x, decreasing to 10.75x in 2025E and 9.59x in 2026E [8] Business Performance - Cemetery services revenue for H1 2024 was RMB 906 million, a year-on-year decrease of 29.6%, with operating profit at RMB 493 million, down 38.5% year-on-year [5] - Funeral services revenue for H1 2024 was RMB 184 million, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%, with service volume down 16.3% and average selling price down 1.8% [5] - The company is actively adjusting its sales strategy to address changes in consumer behavior and economic conditions [5] Market Data - The stock price range over the past 52 weeks was HKD 4.09 to HKD 6.01 [7] - The current market capitalization is HKD 9.488 billion, with 2.32 billion shares outstanding [7]
福寿园2024年中报业绩点评：业绩低于预期，关注产品优化和销售策略调整