ZJJH(SH:600160) Huachuang Securities·2024-08-27 03:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][6][18]. Core Views - The company has entered a performance realization phase for refrigerants, with significant year-on-year growth in overall performance [2]. - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 834 million yuan, up 70.31% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights that the refrigerant segment is the main profit contributor, while other segments like fluorochemical raw materials and fluoropolymer experienced a decline in revenue and profit [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.86%. The net profit for the same period was 524 million yuan, up 55.35% year-on-year and 68.83% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The price increase of refrigerants contributed significantly to profit growth, with product prices rising year-on-year by 7.61 billion yuan, mainly from refrigerants (640 million) and petrochemical materials (121 million) [3]. Market Dynamics - The implementation of the third-generation refrigerant quota policy and the unexpected growth in air conditioning production (H1 2024 household air conditioning production totaled 112 million units, up 15.2% year-on-year) have supported the strong price increases of refrigerants [3]. - The report notes that the prices of R32, R125, R134a, and R143a refrigerants increased by 112%, 25%, 9%, and 88% respectively in H1 2024 [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued upward momentum in refrigerant prices, with expectations for sustained profit growth in subsequent quarters [3]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the refrigerant market, benefiting from pricing power and industry dynamics, despite some downward pressure from raw material price increases [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.43 billion yuan, 4.09 billion yuan, and 5.30 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 157.5%, 68.3%, and 29.7% [4][10]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 25.75 yuan per share, based on a 17x P/E ratio for 2025 [3][6].