恒瑞医药：公司半年报点评：中报业绩稳健，创新药收入亮眼

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a robust performance in its 2024 interim report, achieving a revenue of 13.601 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22%. Excluding the BD upfront payment of 160 million euros, the estimated organic growth rate is approximately 11% [6] - The revenue from innovative drugs reached 6.612 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%. Key products such as Rivoceranib, Darsylin, and Henggrelin saw significant revenue growth due to increased hospital admissions. The sales of other innovative drugs also contributed positively [6] - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.432 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.67% [6] - The company is actively advancing its innovative drug clinical trials, with multiple products progressing through various clinical phases and new indications being approved [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 86.23%, an increase of 2.07 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio decreased by 3.98 percentage points to 28.96%, and the management expense ratio fell by 1.07 percentage points to 8.63% [6] - The company’s R&D investment for the first half of 2024 was 3.860 billion yuan, with a research expense ratio of 22.34%, an increase of 1.47 percentage points year-on-year [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.674 billion yuan, 6.283 billion yuan, and 7.718 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 55.1%, -5.9%, and 22.8% respectively. The estimated EPS for these years is 1.05 yuan, 0.98 yuan, and 1.21 yuan [7][8] - The company is valued using the PEG method, with a target PE ratio of 44-54 times for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 45.73 to 57.17 yuan [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leader in the domestic innovative drug sector and is enhancing its sales model by improving its medical and market systems, reducing frontline sales personnel, and establishing new sales teams [6][7]