LONGFOR GROUP(00960) 海通证券·2024-08-27 07:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][13] Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2024, with total revenue of 46.86 billion yuan, down 24.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.87 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year [3][6][10] - The operational and service business showed resilience, contributing over 80% to the core profit, with service revenue increasing by 7.6% [3][6][10] - The company maintains a healthy debt structure with a net debt ratio of 56.7% and an average borrowing cost of 4.16% [4][6][10] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 168.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 7.2% [1] - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be 11.61 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.6% decrease year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to be 17.0% in 2024, slightly improving to 17.5% by 2026 [1][14] Business Segment Analysis - The development business revenue decreased by 32.3% to 33.76 billion yuan, accounting for 72.0% of total revenue [3][6][10] - Rental income from operational services increased by 4.3% to 6.61 billion yuan, representing 14.1% of total revenue [3][6][10] - The company’s property management and related services revenue grew by 11.1% to 6.49 billion yuan, making up 13.8% of total revenue [3][6][10] Debt and Financing - As of the end of the first half of 2024, the company had total borrowings of 187.42 billion yuan and cash on hand of 50.06 billion yuan [4][6][10] - The cash-to-short-term debt ratio stands at 1.01 times, indicating a balanced liquidity position [4][6][10] Valuation and Price Target - The estimated EPS for 2024 is approximately 1.69 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6-7 times, leading to a target price range of 10.12-11.81 yuan per share [4][13]