NANSHAN ALUMINIUM(600219) Guoxin Securities·2024-08-27 08:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [3][13]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year growth of 66.7% in H1 2024, driven by both volume and price increases in its products, particularly alumina [1][4]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River nonferrous market was 19,800 CNY/ton, up 7.1% year-on-year, while the average price of alumina in Shandong was 3,444 CNY/ton, up 18.9% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is expanding its upstream operations, planning to establish 4 million tons of alumina and 1 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in Indonesia, while also optimizing its domestic production capacity [1][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 15.667 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 8.05%, and a net profit of 2.189 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 66.68% [1][4]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 25.23%, an increase of 6.01 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 16.76%, an increase of 6.51 percentage points year-on-year [8][11]. - The company's asset-liability ratio improved to 19.62% by the end of Q2 2024, down 1.87% from the end of 2023 [1][8]. Earnings Forecast and Financial Indicators - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 is 28.308 billion CNY, 32.258 billion CNY, and 36.293 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.86%, 13.95%, and 12.51% respectively [2][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.331 billion CNY, 4.421 billion CNY, and 5.076 billion CNY for the same period, with growth rates of 24.66%, 2.09%, and 14.81% respectively [2][13]. - The diluted EPS is expected to be 0.37 CNY, 0.38 CNY, and 0.43 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 10.0x, 9.8x, and 8.5x [2][13].