新奥股份：2024年中报点评：顺价推进、直销稳增，高股息具安全边际

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved operating revenue of 66.976 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.29%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [2][10] - The core profit decreased by 14.83% to 2.699 billion yuan, primarily due to the impact of narrowing price differentials in platform trading gas and adjustments in overseas wholesale gas sales strategies [3][11] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend distribution of no less than 1.03/1.14 yuan per share for 2024-2025, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5.6%/6.2% [4][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 66.976 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.53 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.8% increase year-on-year [10] - The core profit was 2.699 billion yuan, down 14.83% year-on-year, attributed to the narrowing of price differentials in platform trading gas and adjustments in sales strategies [3][11] - The company’s retail gas sales volume increased by 4.5% to 12.71 billion cubic meters, while platform trading gas and wholesale gas volumes grew by 21.0% and 1.0%, respectively [3][12] Business Segments - The natural gas business showed stable growth, with retail gas price differentials improving to 0.54 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.02 yuan year-on-year [3][17] - The engineering construction and installation segment saw a decline in new residential user connections, down 22.4% year-on-year, with total connections reaching 30.537 million [12][14] - The comprehensive energy business achieved sales of 19.74 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.0%, with gross profit rising by 17.0% [14][15] Market Outlook - The demand for natural gas is expected to grow steadily, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 9% from 2023 to 2030 in China [16][17] - The company has established an integrated layout from upstream gas sources to downstream customers, enhancing its market position [16][17] - The company’s retail gas margin is expected to improve further as the pricing mechanism continues to evolve [4][19]