云铝股份：公司受益于铝价上涨，24H1归母同比增长66%

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company benefits from rising aluminum prices, with a 66% year-on-year growth in net profit for the first half of 2024 [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 24.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.49% [4] - The gross profit margin for electrolytic aluminum products decreased by 2.94 percentage points to 15.43% due to rising raw material costs [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 798 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 31.67% [4] Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 13.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.0% [4] - The net profit for Q2 2024 was 1.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 115.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.5% [4] - The average aluminum price in the Chinese market for H1 2024 was 19,798 yuan per ton, up 7.1% year-on-year [4] - The company produced 1.351 million tons of primary aluminum in H1 2024, a significant increase of 38.7% year-on-year [4] Production and Operational Goals - The company aims to produce approximately 1.4 million tons of alumina, 2.7 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, and 1.26 million tons of aluminum alloys and processed products in 2024 [4] - The production of alumina in H1 2024 was 723,000 tons, while carbon products and aluminum processing products were 398,000 tons and 588,000 tons, respectively [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 49.8 billion yuan, 53.7 billion yuan, and 57.5 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.44 billion yuan, 4.64 billion yuan, and 4.91 billion yuan [5] - The expected year-on-year growth rates for net profit are 12.2%, 4.4%, and 5.9% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2024 is projected at 9.13x, with subsequent years showing a decreasing trend [5]