天山铝业：业绩大幅增长，充分受益铝产业链一体化

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for Tianshan Aluminum (002532) [1] Core Views - The company has significantly benefited from the integration of the aluminum industry chain, with a notable increase in net profit by 103.45% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, despite a 6.83% decrease in revenue [1][2] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in both electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with the average price of electrolytic aluminum rising by 7.1% year-on-year and alumina by 20.2% year-on-year [1][3] - The company is expected to maintain high profitability levels due to its integrated operations and low-cost advantages in Xinjiang, with projected net profits of 4.29 billion, 4.83 billion, and 5.22 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 13.785 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.83% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.074 billion yuan, an increase of 103.45% year-on-year [1] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum was 19,801 yuan/ton, with a gross profit per ton of 3,682 yuan, up 630 yuan year-on-year [1][2] Production and Capacity - The company has established a 2.5 million ton alumina production line in Guangxi and is planning a 2 million ton alumina production line in Indonesia, ensuring a stable and low-cost supply of bauxite [2][3] - The company aims to produce 1.16 million tons of primary aluminum, 1.35 million tons of alumina, and 25,000 tons of high-purity aluminum in 2024 [3] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a tight supply-demand balance in the electrolytic aluminum market, with domestic consumption expected to grow by 8% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2024, driven by demand from the new energy vehicle sector and other industries [1][3] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from rising aluminum prices and is expected to maintain high profitability levels due to its integrated operations and low-cost advantages [3]