兴业银行2024年半年报点评：业绩转正，步入上行趋势

Investment Rating - Maintained "Buy" rating for Industrial Bank (601166) [1][6] Core Views - Revenue growth turned positive, with net profit growth shifting from negative to positive in H1 2024 [1][4] - Corporate loans showed steady growth, with loan structure gradually optimizing [1][4] - Net interest margin decline was smaller than peers, with deposit costs continuing to decrease [1][4] - Asset quality remained stable overall, with slight decline in provision coverage [2][5] - Capital adequacy ratios were healthy, with convertible bonds in conversion period to supplement core tier-1 capital [6] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue increased by 1.8% YoY to 113 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to parent company up 0.9% YoY to 43 billion yuan [3][4] - Q2 2024 revenue decreased 0.6% YoY, but net profit increased 6.5% YoY [1][4] - Net interest income grew 4.2% YoY in H1 2024, while fee-based income declined 19.4% YoY [1][4] - Credit impairment losses increased 10.2% YoY, with loan impairment losses decreasing and debt investment impairment losses increasing [1][4] Loan Business - Total loans increased 8.7% YoY in H1 2024, with corporate loans up 14.8% YoY [1][4] - New loans in H1 2024 reached approximately 200 billion yuan, with corporate loans accounting for 266.6 billion yuan [1][4] - Retail loan balance decreased by 33.1 billion yuan, mainly due to declines in mortgage and credit card loans [1][4] Interest Margin and Deposit Costs - Net interest margin was 1.86% in H1 2024, down 7bp from end-2023 and 9bp YoY [1][4] - Loan yield decreased 25bp to 4.32%, with corporate/personal loan yields down 18bp/35bp respectively [1][4] - Deposit cost ratio decreased 18bp to 2.06%, with corporate/personal deposit costs down 22bp/6bp respectively [1][4] Asset Quality - NPL ratio increased 1bp QoQ to 1.08% in H1 2024 [2][5] - Provision coverage ratio decreased 8pct QoQ to 238%, while provision-to-loan ratio decreased 7bp to 2.56% [2][5] - Corporate NPL ratio increased 1bp to 0.97%, with real estate NPL ratio up from 0.84% to 1.08% [2][6] - Retail NPL ratio remained flat at 1.42%, with credit card NPL ratio down 5bp to 3.88% [2][6] Capital Position - Core tier-1 capital adequacy ratio was 9.48% at end-H1 2024 [6] - Tier-1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 10.98%, with total capital adequacy ratio at 14.44% [6] Earnings Forecast - 2024 EPS forecast adjusted to 3.77 yuan, with 2025 EPS forecast at 3.88 yuan [6] - Estimated 2024 year-end book value per share is 36.79 yuan [6] - Price-to-book ratio for 2024 year-end is estimated at 0.46x based on August 22, 2024 closing price [6]