五芳斋：粽子需求疲软但结构上移，期待月饼旺季到来

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.00 CNY, based on a reasonable valuation level of 20 times the earnings for 2024 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.58 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 15.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 230 million CNY, down 8.9% year-on-year. In the second quarter alone, revenue was 1.37 billion CNY, down 16.7%, with a net profit of 300 million CNY, down 5.3% [1]. - The demand for traditional rice dumplings (zongzi) is weak, but there is an expectation for growth in other products like rice balls and glutinous rice dumplings. The revenue from zongzi in the first half of 2024 was 1.33 billion CNY, a decline of 16%, while the meal series saw a revenue increase of 6% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from an improved product mix, with a gross margin of 44.8% in the first half of 2024, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, due to a higher supply of premium zongzi [1]. - The mooncake sales season is approaching, and the company is actively launching innovative products to enhance competitiveness, including new flavors and healthier options [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 159 million CNY, 173 million CNY, and 207 million CNY respectively, with a downward revision from previous forecasts [5]. - The revenue for 2024 is expected to be 2.39 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, with a gradual recovery projected in subsequent years [2]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 38.2% in 2024, with net profit margins increasing to 6.7% [2].