IMDTECL(002128) 开源证券·2024-08-27 14:37Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance is improving due to the enhancement of coal, aluminum, and electricity businesses, with a focus on dividend increases and green energy transformation [2] - The company achieved revenue of 14.127 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.95%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.944 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.99% [2] - The company's coal, aluminum, and electricity businesses all showed year-on-year improvements, with new energy power generation growing significantly [2] - The company is actively promoting new energy business, and the installed capacity is expected to continue to expand, with potential for transformation growth [2] Business Performance Coal Business - The company is a leading lignite enterprise in eastern Inner Mongolia and northeastern China, with coal production and sales of 22.67/22.22 million tons in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.94%/4.01% [2] - The average coal price was 202.6 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, with a cost of 85.3 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, and a gross margin increase of 2.3 percentage points to 57.9% [2] Aluminum Business - The company's subsidiary, Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum & Electricity Co Ltd, has an electrolytic aluminum production line with a capacity of 860,000 tons [2] - In H1 2024, the company's electrolytic aluminum production and sales were 448,000/447,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.36%/3.88% [2] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum was 17,286 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, with a cost of 12,995 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, and a gross margin increase of 8.0 percentage points to 24.8% [2] Power Business - The company currently has 2×600MW thermal power units, and the new energy business is developing smoothly [2] - As of the end of June 2024, the installed capacity of new energy was 4,779.8 MW, an increase of 227.8 MW compared to the end of 2023 [2] - In H1 2024, the company generated 5.56 billion kWh of electricity, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, including 2.48 billion kWh of thermal power, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%, and 3.07 billion kWh of new energy power, a year-on-year increase of 99.5% [2] - The company sold 5.30 billion kWh of electricity, a year-on-year increase of 27.0%, including 2.26 billion kWh of thermal power, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%, and 3.04 billion kWh of new energy power, a year-on-year increase of 99.7% [2] Future Prospects Main Business Growth - The company's coal business is expected to contribute incremental growth, with the Baiyinhua No 2 and No 3 mines having a combined capacity of 35 million tons [2] - The company's electrolytic aluminum business is expected to contribute performance elasticity, with the second phase of the Huomei Hongjun Zhalai Aluminum project with a capacity of 350,000 tons under preparation [2] - The company's new energy installed capacity is expected to exceed 10,000 MW by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and green power business is expected to become a new profit growth point [2] Dividend Increase - The company's dividend ratio in 2023 was 33.43%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.6% in 2024 [2] - The company announced its first interim dividend in the 2024 interim report, proposing a cash dividend of 0.5 yuan per 10 shares (tax included), totaling 112 million yuan, with a dividend ratio of 3.81% [2] - Under the requirements of central enterprise market value management, the company's dividend ratio is expected to continue to increase, highlighting investment value [2] Financial Summary and Valuation - The company's revenue is expected to be 29.113/29.508/30.306 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, with year-on-year growth of 8.4%/1.4%/2.7% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 5.516/5.788/6.389 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, with year-on-year growth of 21.0%/4.9%/10.4% [3] - EPS is expected to be 2.46/2.58/2.85 yuan in 2024/2025/2026, with a corresponding PE ratio of 7.2/6.9/6.3 times [3] - The company's gross margin is expected to be 35.5%/35.3%/36.1% in 2024/2025/2026, and net margin is expected to be 18.9%/19.6%/21.1% [3] - ROE is expected to be 16.3%/14.7%/13.7% in 2024/2025/2026 [3]