2025 年 11 月 28 日 开源金股，12 月推荐 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 策略：近期调整结束后成长或仍占优 本轮调整结束后有望延续前期成长风格，把握 AI 硬件优质 Alpha 的同时重视科 技潜在的高低切：军工、传媒（游戏）、AI 应用、港股互联网、电力设备等。 商贸零售：上美股份（2145.HK） Q4 主推产品有望快速放量，双十一表现亮眼。 传媒：巨人网络（002558.SZ） 圣诞、元旦活动或推动《超自然行动组》DAU、流水等关键数据突破新高。 电子：北方华创（002371.SZ） 财务压力得到改善，长鑫与长存上市进展公布、国内 FAB 开启招标、地缘政治 带动自主可控情绪加强。 金融工程：基于行业轮动模型的 12 月行业多头 基于行业动力学模型，12 月行业组合为：美容护理，社会服务，家用电器，石 油石化，商贸零售，通信，交通运输，汽车，传媒，食品饮料。 海外：阿里巴巴-W（9988.HK） 积极投入 AI 基础设施建设并计划追加更多投入有望驱动云业务增长提速，淘天 短期加大闪购投入，用户 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown a significant improvement in its financial performance, with a narrowing of losses and a strong outlook for future profitability, particularly with the upcoming product launches and collaborations [4][6]. - The company is transitioning towards becoming a leader in physical world AI, with plans to introduce multiple new vehicle models and advanced technologies in the coming years [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5%. The gross margin was 20.1%, with a net loss of 380 million yuan, and an adjusted net loss of 150 million yuan, with expectations of profitability in Q4 2025 [4][5]. - The company expects Q4 2025 revenue to be between 21.5 billion and 23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.5% to 42.8%, with vehicle deliveries projected between 125,000 and 132,000 units [6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 77.54 billion yuan in 2025, 129.36 billion yuan in 2026, and 161.17 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding Non-GAAP net profits expected to be -394 million yuan, 2.51 billion yuan, and 5.11 billion yuan respectively [4][7]. - The company’s price-to-sales (P/S) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.9, 1.1, and 0.9 respectively, while the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2026 and 2027 are expected to be 57.4 and 28.2 respectively [4][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has increased its R&D investment, and its innovative pipeline is gradually entering a harvest period. The FDA has approved the clinical trial for the YKYY018 aerosol inhalation agent for the prevention and treatment of RSV infections. Despite facing pressure on its operating performance in 2025, the company is optimistic about its long-term growth potential due to its innovative layout and small nucleic acid technology platform [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.759 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.20%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -148 million yuan, down 170.56% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent company was -168 million yuan, a decrease of 182.95% year-on-year [3][4] - The company has adjusted the price of its "Ginkgo Leaf Extract Injection" at the end of 2024, which has impacted its performance. The R&D expenses have increased significantly, contributing to the net profit decline [3][4] - The sales expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2025 was 28.64%, down 7.37 percentage points; the management expense ratio was 10.67%, up 5.18 percentage points; the R&D expense ratio was 18.00%, up 9.27 percentage points; and the financial expense ratio was 0.59%, up 0.47 percentage points [3][4] Earnings Forecast - The revised earnings forecast for the company indicates net profits attributable to the parent company of -183 million yuan, -53 million yuan, and 69 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The original forecasts were 51 million yuan, 206 million yuan, and 561 million yuan [3][4] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is -0.41 yuan, -0.12 yuan, and 0.15 yuan respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of -60.6, -208.5, and 161.2 times [3][4] Innovative Pipeline Progress - The company is advancing its innovative drug pipeline, with key traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) drugs in the final review stage for NDA. The small nucleic acid innovative drugs YKYY015 and YKYY029 have received approval for clinical trials in the US and China, with ongoing Phase I trials domestically [4] - The RSV mRNA vaccine YKYY025 and VZV mRNA vaccine YKYY026 have also received approval for clinical trials in the US. The company has completed the Phase IIa clinical trial for its first domestic antisense nucleic acid drug for primary liver cancer [4]

魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 2025 年 11 月 28 日 金融工程研究团队 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 蒋 韬（研究员） 证书编号：S0790123070037 开源交易行为因子绩效月报（2025 年 11 月） ——金融工程定期 | 魏建榕（分析师） | 高鹏（分析师） | 盛少成（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | weijianrong@kysec.cn | gaopeng@kysec.cn | shengshaocheng@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519120001 | 证书编号：S0790520090002 | 证书编号：S0790523060003 | Barra 风格因子表现跟踪 通过对 Barra 风格因子 2025 年 11 月的收益测 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 38.986 billion for FY2026H1, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, an increase of 0.1% [5] - The company is actively pursuing brand transformation and product optimization, which has led to an upward revision of profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 [5] - Same-store sales in mainland China showed a recovery with a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in FY2026H1, and a significant growth of 38.8% from October 1 to November 18, 2025 [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For FY2026E, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of HKD 90.018 billion, with a net profit of HKD 8.247 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.4% [9] - The projected EPS for FY2026E is HKD 0.83, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.7, 14.9, and 13.7 for FY2026E, FY2027E, and FY2028E respectively [9] - The gross margin for FY2026H1 was reported at 30.5%, slightly down by 0.9 percentage points, benefiting from rising gold prices and an increase in the proportion of high-margin products [6]

计算机 计算机 2025 年 11 月 28 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 相关研究报告 《周观点：AI 产业持续繁荣—行业周 报》-2025.11.23 《周观点：国产 AI 持续突破 —行业 周报》-2025.11.16 《周观点：AI 应用有望加速落地—行 业周报》-2025.11.9 行业走势图 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 计算机 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 商业航天三年行动计划出台，关注行业投资机会 商业航天三年行动计划出台，力争 2027 年基本实现商业航天高质量发展 11 月 25 日，国家航天局印发《推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划（2025— 2027 年）》，提出要加快构建新发展格局，坚持高质量发展，坚持有效市场和有 为政府相结合，坚持统筹发展和安全，将商业航天纳入国家航天发展总体布局。 到 2027 年，商业航天产业生态高效协同，科研生产安全有序，产业规模显著壮 大，创新创造活力显著增强，资源能力实现统筹建设和高效利用，行业治理能力 显著提升，基本实现商业航天高质量发展。 商业航天司或将作为独立职能部门 ...

宏观经济点评 2025 年 11 月 27 日 利润增速转负，新质生产力效益增势向好 宏观研究团队 ——兼评 10 月企业利润数据 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 证书编号：S0790524020002 1、10 月名义库存同比回升 0.9 个百分点至 3.7%、连续 2 个月库存增加，实际库 存同比小幅提高 0.7 个百分点至 5.8%。考虑到 10 月量能指标（工增、营收）均 收缩，企业转向"主动补库存"的信号仍较微弱，有待扩内需政策加码助推库存 周期切换。 2、总体来看，低基数效应消退后 Q4 工企利润将持续承压，但好的方面在于新 质生产力效益增势向好，反内卷与非反内卷行业的利润收敛趋势或未改变。往后 看，需关注增量财政（政策性金融工具、专项债限额空间等）形成实物工作量的 进度与效果，以及中美经贸关系边际改善带来的利润修复。 风险提示：政策变化超预期；地缘政治反复超预期；美国经济超预期衰退。 事件：2025 年 1-10 月全国规上工企利润累计同比 1.9%，前值 3.2%；营业收入 累计同比 1.8%，前值 2.4%。 低基数效应 ...

Group 1: Power Industry Insights - The power industry is expected to stabilize as electricity reform accelerates, with a focus on the profitability of thermal power, quality wind power, and opportunities for power equipment exports [6][12] - From January to November 2025, electricity demand in China maintained steady growth, with total electricity consumption reaching 8.62 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [6] - The price of thermal coal has rebounded since July 2025, which is anticipated to stabilize electricity prices, with the average monthly trading price in Jiangsu reaching 395.60 RMB/MWh, an increase of 82.80 RMB/MWh [7] Group 2: Hydropower and Nuclear Power - Hydropower companies have shown stable operations, with net interest margins widening in a low-interest-rate environment, making them attractive for long-term investment [8] - The marketization ratio of nuclear power is gradually increasing, with the marketable electricity volume for Lingao and Yangjiang nuclear power plants expected to rise by 14.3% in 2026 [9] Group 3: Green Energy and Equipment - The income policies for green energy have become clearer, with market reforms entering a deeper phase, and the wind power tax subsidy is expected to decline [10] - Investment in domestic power equipment has shown significant growth, with cumulative procurement for the State Grid's transmission and transformation equipment reaching 787.47 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [11] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Sector - Iwubio - Iwubio is a leading company in the desensitization treatment field, with a strong market position in dust mite drops and a new growth point in the yellow flower pollen sublingual drops [14][15] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 399 million RMB, 493 million RMB, and 600 million RMB for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 41.0, 33.3, and 27.3 times [14] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector - Aladdin - Aladdin has demonstrated significant synergy from external mergers and acquisitions, with revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 440 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.59% [18] - The company has revised its profit forecasts upward for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 110 million RMB, 160 million RMB, and 200 million RMB, with corresponding EPS of 0.33, 0.48, and 0.60 RMB [18]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the desensitization treatment field, with significant advantages in core products and a diversified layout. Its dust mite drops maintain the highest market share, while the mugwort pollen sublingual drops fill a gap in northern pollen allergy treatment, expected to become a new growth point [5][6]. - The allergic market is expanding, with desensitization therapy showing significant advantages over symptomatic treatments. The domestic anti-allergy drug market is projected to reach 43.67 billion yuan by 2029, driven by rising allergy disease incidence [6][47]. - The company's core products are performing strongly, with the dust mite drops showing a five-year CAGR of 8.86% and revenue of 794 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 13.38% increase year-on-year. The mugwort pollen drops have a CAGR of 64.71% since their launch in 2021, with a 117.58% increase in revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2002, focuses on the research, production, and sales of allergen products, specializing in desensitization drugs and diagnostic reagents [18]. Market Potential - The incidence of allergic diseases is rising, with the anti-allergy drug market in China expected to grow significantly. The desensitization treatment is recognized as the only method that can influence the disease process, unlike symptomatic treatments [6][48]. Product Performance - The dust mite drops have shown strong sales performance, with a revenue CAGR of 8.86% and a gross margin consistently above 95%. The mugwort pollen drops have rapidly gained market share since their launch, with a revenue increase of 117.58% in the first three quarters of 2025 [7][8]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 399 million yuan, 493 million yuan, and 600 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 41.0, 33.3, and 27.3 [5][9].

投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/11/26 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 12.78 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.95/11.33 | | 总市值(亿元) | 42.51 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 42.51 | | 总股本(亿股) | 3.33 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 3.33 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 125.09 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 阿拉丁 沪深300 相关研究报告 《与默克达成全球合作，公司发展有 望迈入新阶段—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.3.5 基础化工/化学制品 阿拉丁（688179.SH） 2025 年 11 月 27 日 外延并购协同效应凸显，下游需求稳步复苏 ——公司信息更新报告 | 余汝意（分析师） | 聂媛媛（联系人） | 石启正（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | nieyuanyuan@kysec.cn | shiqizheng@kysec. ...