2026 年 02 月 22 日 节后市场展望 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 weijixing@kysec.cn 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 节后行情规律：中小盘占优，科技周期占优 复盘春节后市场规律，节后 5 个、10 个、20 个交易日内，市场上涨概率逐步提 升，大盘日渐回暖；风格上，呈现"中小盘优于大盘，成长占优"的特征，市场 以追求超额为目的，中证 2000 涨幅和上涨概率均相对较高；行业上，科技与周 期板块相对占优，节后二十个交易日内，计算机、通信、环保、有色金属、钢铁、 纺织服饰涨幅靠前，食品饮料、银行、家用电器、非银金融、石油石化相对靠后。 春季躁动并非一次性走完 春季躁动并非一次性走完，2016 年至今 10 次样本中 6 次躁动走出第二波。复盘 过去十年的春季躁动，存在第一波上涨完、经历回调后走出第二波的可能。临近 春节，资金往往有落袋为安的心理，加之长假期间的海外不确定性，市场会经历 一次缩量调整，调整后第二波往往比第一波更具赚钱效应。第二轮上涨方向与当 时的市场主线强相关，本轮主线仍以科技为主，或围 ...

北交所策略专题报告 北交所 ESG 信披体系再完善：聚焦绩优股，掘金 ESG 组合领先的超额收益 北交所研究团队 ——北交所策略专题报告 | 诸海滨（分析师） | 余中天（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhuhaibin@kysec.cn | yuzhongtian@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080007 | 证书编号：S0790525050003 | 事件：北交所增补三项环境议题指南，ESG 披露框架持续完善 2026 年 1 月 30 日，沪深北交易所修订发布《上市公司可持续发展报告编制指南》， 增补《第三号 污染物排放》《第四号 能源利用》《第五号 水资源利用》三项议 题指南。北交所于 2025 年 1 月 17 日首次发布《指南》及其附件《第一号 总体 要求与披露框架》《第二号 应对气候变化》。北交所表示，本次修订在保持原有 框架基础上，新增《第三号 污染物排放》《第四号 能源利用》《第五号 水资 源利用》三个应用指南，进一步细化环境维度披露要求，为上市公司提供更清晰、 可操作的披露指引。三份指南主要内容均分为相关风险和机遇评估、核算、披露 要点三大板块。《第 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - In January 2026, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) exports doubled year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the month, with a growth rate of 103.6%. NEVs accounted for 49.6% of total exports, an increase of 12.5 percentage points year-on-year. BYD led the exports with nearly 100,000 units, while traditional automakers like Geely, Chery, and SAIC also saw over 200% growth in NEV exports [3][25][22]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Exports - In 2025, China's NEV exports grew by 70%, with plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) being the core growth driver. The growth rate for PHEVs was 127.5%, significantly higher than the 32.5% for pure electric vehicles (EVs) [14][15]. - January 2026 saw NEV exports reach 28.6 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 103.6%. BYD's exports approached 100,000 units, while Geely, Chery, and others also reported significant growth [25][27]. Industry News - The retail market for passenger vehicles in January 2026 was 1.544 million units, a decline of 13.9% year-on-year. February is expected to see the lowest sales of the year due to the impact of the Spring Festival [31]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public opinion on five mandatory national standards related to intelligent connected vehicles and autonomous driving systems [35]. Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the market, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rising by 0.36% and the automotive sector increasing by 1.74%, ranking 9th among A-share industries [5][40]. - The passenger vehicle index rose by 1.21%, while the commercial vehicle index saw a significant increase of 6.28% [5]. Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, the demand for high-end domestic luxury cars is exceeding expectations, with recommendations for companies like JAC Motors and Seres. Beneficiaries include Geely [6]. - In the auto parts sector, profitability is expected to improve, with recommendations for companies such as Desay SV and Zhejiang Xiantong, while beneficiaries include Weichai Power and Fuyao Glass [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in its core business, driven by content expansion and AI applications [1][4] - In 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.76 billion yuan (down 2.4% year-on-year) and a net profit of 2.75 billion yuan (up 76.0% year-on-year), primarily due to improved profitability and a tax credit of approximately 680 million yuan [4][5] - The company anticipates a gradual increase in ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) driven by high-quality content, despite a short-term impact from changes in membership structure [4][5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2025 was 77.6 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 35.7% (up 2 percentage points year-on-year) [4][6] - The company achieved a net profit margin of 35.4% in 2025, with an expected net profit of 2.10 billion yuan for 2026 [6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 15.0, 13.4, and 11.9 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in M1 and M2 growth rates due to the Spring Festival effect and proactive marketing by banks, with January M1 growth at 4.9% and M2 at 9.0% [3] - January saw a notable increase in new RMB deposits, totaling 8.09 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous year's 4.32 trillion yuan, driven by corporate, fiscal, and non-bank deposits [3] - The report indicates a shift towards short-term loans, with January's new RMB loans at 4.71 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease in medium to long-term loans [4][5] - The investment suggestion emphasizes the need to monitor credit and deposit maturity windows in March, with large banks and quality regional banks expected to benefit from expansion and performance certainty [5] Summary by Sections Deposit and Loan Trends - January's new RMB deposits were 8.09 trillion yuan, with corporate deposits increasing by 2.82 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits by 1.22 trillion yuan, and non-bank deposits by 2.56 trillion yuan [3] - The structure of loans shows a significant increase in short-term loans, with corporate short-term loans up by 3.1 trillion yuan, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 2.8 trillion yuan [5] Social Financing - The total social financing in January was 7.22 trillion yuan, with a stock growth rate of 8.2%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous month [4] - Direct financing, including corporate and government bonds, saw a year-on-year increase, indicating a shift in financing methods [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks with strong balance sheet expansion capabilities, specifically mentioning Citic Bank and Suzhou Bank, while also highlighting beneficiaries like Agricultural Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Chongqing Bank [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes optimism regarding the company's growth driven by new game launches, overseas expansion, and AI empowerment [5] - The company achieved revenue of 27.5 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.9% [5] - The report highlights a strong growth momentum in contract liabilities, which increased by 5% to 20.5 billion yuan by the end of Q4 [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term operation of classic games and the launch of new titles, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026-2028 being 37.2 billion, 41.9 billion, and 45.1 billion yuan respectively [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 105.3 billion yuan for 2024, 112.6 billion yuan for 2025, 119.6 billion yuan for 2026, 129.9 billion yuan for 2027, and 136.1 billion yuan for 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 7.0%, 6.2%, 8.7%, and 4.7% respectively [6] - Net profit estimates are 29.7 billion yuan for 2024, 33.8 billion yuan for 2025, 37.2 billion yuan for 2026, 41.9 billion yuan for 2027, and 45.1 billion yuan for 2028, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 1.0%, 13.7%, 10.2%, 12.6%, and 7.6% [6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 14.1, 12.5, and 11.6 respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the company's strong growth potential driven by new game launches, the revitalization of existing games, and the integration of AI technology [5] - The company achieved a revenue of 27.5 billion yuan in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.9% [5] - The report highlights the successful performance of the game "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds," which topped the iOS sales chart in mainland China and achieved over 80 million global players [5] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory with projected net profits of 37.2 billion yuan in 2026, 41.9 billion yuan in 2027, and 45.1 billion yuan in 2028 [5][6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 105.3 billion yuan in 2024, 112.6 billion yuan in 2025, 119.6 billion yuan in 2026, 129.9 billion yuan in 2027, and 136.1 billion yuan in 2028 [6] - The net profit is projected to grow from 29.7 billion yuan in 2024 to 45.1 billion yuan in 2028, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 1.0%, 13.7%, 10.2%, 12.6%, and 7.6% [6] - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 14.1 for 2026, 12.5 for 2027, and 11.6 for 2028, suggesting a favorable valuation outlook [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group is "Buy" [10] Core Insights - Lenovo's revenue performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong orders for AI servers and robust supply chain resilience, which is expected to stabilize profit margins [6][7] - The company has adjusted its FY2026 earnings forecast upwards due to better-than-expected Q3 performance, maintaining FY2027-2028 earnings projections [6] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026 is projected at $1.81 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.5% [6] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2026 Q3, Lenovo reported revenue of $22.204 billion, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of $20.76 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [7] - Non-GAAP net profit reached $589 million, exceeding expectations of $463 million, with a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [7] - Breakdown of revenue by business segments: - IDG: Revenue of $15.755 billion, up 14.3% year-on-year, with PC shipments growing 14.4% compared to the industry average of 9.6% [7] - ISG: Revenue of $5.176 billion, up 31.4% year-on-year, supported by AI infrastructure orders [7][8] - SSG: Revenue of $2.652 billion, up 17.5% year-on-year, with deferred revenue increasing by 20% [8] Earnings and Valuation Metrics - Projected revenues for FY2026 are $81.289 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [9] - Non-GAAP net profit projections for FY2026-2028 are $1.81 billion, $2.07 billion, and $2.36 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 25.5%, 14.5%, and 13.9% [9] - The current P/E ratios are projected at 9.5, 8.3, and 7.3 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively [9]

Group 1 - Investment Rating: The report suggests to pay attention to HIFIMAN due to its technological and brand advantages, indicating a positive outlook for the company [6][5][4] - Core Viewpoint: HIFIMAN is positioned as a high-end audio brand with a focus on delivering high-fidelity sound experiences, and it has established itself as a global player in the high-end audio market [2][14][17] Group 2 - Business Overview: HIFIMAN specializes in the design, research, production, and sales of high-end audio products, including headphones and playback devices, with a strong emphasis on sound fidelity [2][14][18] - Financial Performance: For Q1-Q3 2025, HIFIMAN achieved revenue of 164 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.23%, and a net profit of 50.35 million yuan, up 29.49% [3][55][56] - Market Growth: The headphone market in China has shown steady growth, with the overall industry output value increasing from 49.26 billion yuan in 2013 to 137.42 billion yuan in 2021, reflecting a CAGR of 13.68% [4][6] Group 3 - Industry Trends: The high-end headphone market is expected to grow significantly, with the global high-end headphone market projected to reach 4.158 billion USD by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 6.5% [4][6][5] - Competitive Landscape: HIFIMAN's PE ratio for 2024 is significantly higher than its peers, indicating its unique market position and potential for growth [6][5][4] - Product Innovation: HIFIMAN has developed multiple innovative products and holds numerous patents, enhancing its competitive edge in the high-end audio market [5][6][17]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on HIFIMAN due to its unique position in the high-end audio market and potential for growth [6][4]. Core Insights - HIFIMAN is recognized as a leading high-end audio brand in China, focusing on the design, research, production, and sales of high-fidelity audio products [3][14]. - The company achieved a revenue of 164 million yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.23%, with a net profit of 50.35 million yuan, up 29.49% [3][55]. - The global high-end headphone market is projected to grow from 2.85 billion USD in 2022 to 4.16 billion USD by 2028, with a CAGR of 6.5% [4]. Company Overview - HIFIMAN specializes in high-end audio products, including over-ear headphones, true wireless earbuds, wired in-ear headphones, and playback devices [3][14]. - The company has a strong focus on delivering high-fidelity sound experiences and has established itself as a significant player in the global high-end audio market [3][14]. Financial Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, HIFIMAN reported a gross margin of 66.88% and a net margin of 30.62% [55][61]. - The company has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.49% over the past three years [56]. Industry Analysis - The headphone market in China has shown steady growth, with the total output value increasing from 49.26 billion yuan in 2013 to 137.42 billion yuan in 2021, achieving a CAGR of 13.68% [4]. - The wireless headphone segment is the fastest-growing category, with a CAGR of 36.66% from 2013 to 2021 [4]. - HIFIMAN's products are positioned in the high-end segment, with a gross margin higher than the average of comparable companies [6][4]. Product Development - HIFIMAN has developed multiple innovative products, including the SHANGRI-LA electrostatic headphone system, which is recognized as a flagship product in the high-end audio market [26][27]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new products and has received numerous patents, indicating a strong commitment to research and development [5][17]. Market Position - HIFIMAN competes directly with established global brands like Sennheiser and Sony, achieving significant market share in various high-end headphone categories [5][6]. - The company has a diverse product line and continues to innovate, which positions it well for future growth in the high-end audio market [5][17].