安踏体育：A moderate outlook and buybacks announced

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Anta Sports, with a target price trimmed to HK$ 97.05, based on an 18x FY25E P/E [2][3]. Core Insights - The 1H24 results showed one-off gains and dividends that offset slow core profit growth, with Anta brand sales growth at 14% YoY, exceeding retail sales growth [2][7]. - The management reiterated a retail sales growth target of 10%+ for the Anta brand in FY24E, supported by various factors including a new product pipeline and rapid online sales growth [2][7]. - FILA brand's FY24E guidance has been revised down to high single digits due to sluggish sales growth and inventory management challenges [2][7]. - The report highlights a significant share buyback program of up to HK$ 10 billion over the next 18 months, which could provide downside protection for the stock [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62,356 million in FY23A to RMB 70,322 million in FY24E, reflecting a YoY growth of 12.8% [3][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 11,277 million in FY23A to RMB 13,686.8 million in FY24E, with a YoY growth of 21.4% [3][11]. - The report indicates a net profit CAGR of 16% during FY23-26E, despite adjustments of -3% for FY24E and FY25E due to slower FILA sales growth [2][8]. Earnings Revision - The earnings estimates for FY24E and FY25E have been adjusted slightly downwards, with revenue for FY24E now at RMB 70,322 million, reflecting a 0.1% increase from the previous estimate [8][9]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 62.7% for FY24E, slightly down from previous estimates [8][9]. - The diluted EPS for FY24E is revised to RMB 4.389, a decrease of 3.0% from earlier projections [8][9]. Operating Performance - The operating profit margin for 1H24 was reported at 30.4%, significantly higher than the previous year, driven by improved gross profit margins and effective cost management [10][12]. - The report notes a 30% drop in operating cash flow, attributed to a high base effect from 1H23, rather than a fundamental decline in business performance [7][10]. - The Anta brand's retail sales growth is projected to remain positive, with expectations of continued strong performance in the second half of FY24E [12].