山西汾酒：公司点评：Q2产品节奏扰动，消费势能仍占优

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 22.75 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.41 billion RMB, up 24.3% year-on-year [1][2]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 7.41 billion RMB, reflecting a 17.1% year-on-year growth, while the net profit for the same period was 2.15 billion RMB, a 10.2% increase year-on-year, slightly below market expectations [1][2]. - The company is optimistic about achieving its annual targets despite a slight decline in profit growth due to product mix issues and a decrease in gross margin [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For 2024, the company expects revenues to grow by 20.1%, with net profits projected to increase by 21.3% [3][5]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 75.1%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a weaker product mix [2][3]. Product Performance - In Q2 2024, high-end and other liquor segments generated revenues of 4.57 billion RMB and 2.80 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 1.5% and 58.3% [2]. - The company anticipates continued growth in mid-range products and stable performance from its flagship series, with plans for market expansion in southern regions [2]. Regional Performance - Revenue from domestic sales in Q2 2024 was 2.80 billion RMB, up 11.2% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province reached 4.57 billion RMB, a 21.8% increase [2]. - The company added 478 new distributors in Q2, bringing the total to 4,196 [2]. Financial Projections - The report projects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 12.66 billion RMB, 14.89 billion RMB, and 17.39 billion RMB, respectively [3][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 10.38 RMB, 12.21 RMB, and 14.25 RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [3].