千味央厨：公司点评：下游需求承压，中长期成长向好

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][4]. Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on downstream demand, but medium to long-term growth prospects remain positive [3]. - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 892 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 59 million RMB, up 6.14% year-on-year [3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its direct sales channels and developing mid-tier customers to stabilize growth amid weak demand [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - In H1 2024, the direct sales and distribution channels generated revenues of 412 million RMB and 476 million RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.54% and 1.77% [3]. - The top five direct sales customers saw a combined revenue growth of 1.61%, with individual growth rates varying significantly [3]. - Revenue from product categories in H1 2024 included 374 million RMB from fried products, 170 million RMB from baked goods, 211 million RMB from steamed products, and 133 million RMB from dishes, with notable growth in steamed and dish categories [3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin slightly improved to 25.21% in H1 2024, up 1.97 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.59%, reflecting a stable performance [3]. - The company’s selling, administrative, and R&D expense ratios increased, indicating higher costs associated with business promotion and employee compensation [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 2.10 billion RMB, 2.34 billion RMB, and 2.64 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 12%, and 13% respectively [4]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 153 million RMB, 175 million RMB, and 203 million RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 14%, 15%, and 16% [4]. - The company is expected to trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15, 13, and 11 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4].