Drinda(002865) 西南证券·2024-08-28 03:14Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to JunDa Co., Ltd. with a target price of 53.25 CNY for the next six months [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing transition in the photovoltaic industry, particularly through its advanced TOPCon technology, which is expected to lead to significant performance improvements and market share gains [2][7][31]. - JunDa's overseas revenue share has rapidly increased from 4.7% in 2023 to 11.6% in Q1 2024, indicating a successful expansion into high-margin international markets [2][4][41]. - The company is set to establish a 5GW production capacity in Oman, expected to commence operations in 2025, which will allow it to enter the lucrative U.S. market at a lower cost [1][4][87]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - JunDa Co., Ltd. transitioned from automotive parts manufacturing to photovoltaic cell production after acquiring Jietai Technology in 2021, establishing itself as a leader in N-type battery production [15][23]. 2. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand mismatch, leading to increased consolidation among smaller players. The report anticipates a supply turning point in the battery segment by late 2024 to early 2025 [1][2][38]. - The TOPCon technology has become mainstream, with its market penetration expected to rise significantly, potentially reaching 70% by 2025 [28][31]. 3. Technological Advancements - TOPCon technology offers various efficiency enhancement routes, with theoretical efficiency reaching up to 28.7%. The report highlights ongoing innovations that could further improve performance and reduce costs [31][46][56]. - JunDa has successfully launched its "MoNo" series of products, achieving conversion efficiencies exceeding 26%, positioning itself at the forefront of technological advancements in the industry [25][60]. 4. Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in revenue, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.7% for net profit from 2024 to 2026. The report estimates net profits of 1.3 billion CNY in 2024, 8.1 billion CNY in 2025, and 16.2 billion CNY in 2026 [5][101]. - JunDa's gross margin is expected to improve as the company scales its operations and benefits from cost reductions in non-silicon materials [5][94]. 5. International Expansion - The company is actively pursuing international markets, with a focus on establishing a strong presence in regions like the U.S. and the Middle East, where demand for solar products is expected to grow significantly [4][65][87]. - JunDa's strategy includes forming local sales teams and partnerships to enhance its competitive edge in overseas markets [2][87]. 6. Valuation - The report suggests a relative valuation approach, comparing JunDa to peers in the photovoltaic sector, with a target price based on a 15x earnings multiple for 2025 [9][105].