"新三样"产业中，产能出清最迫在眉睫的是光伏。 近期，随着高层政策频繁提到"反内卷"，市场博弈减产力度升级逻辑，光伏产业链现货价格跳涨，硅料、 硅片现货市场报价周内跳涨超10%。以硅片为例，全尺寸涨幅超过13%，各环节涨幅分化，N型G10L单 晶硅片涨逾22%，报1.5元/片，系年内单周最高涨幅。 资本市场方面，期货与光伏板块应声上涨，7月18日，多晶硅主力合约盘中创下历史最高，2508合约自6 月25日以来累计上涨42%，区间最大涨幅50%。 2025.07. 22 本文字数：1738，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 魏中原 7月18日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，工信部相关负责人表示，以市场化思维、法治化理念加强 行业治理，推动落后产能有序退出。 二是，企业开工率维持低位： 观测各环节龙头及代表性企业的实际开工率，是判断减产执行力的重要窗 口。有统计显示，开工率长期维持在60%以下，方能说明企业自律。 三是，低效产能的永久退出： 最有力的信号是看到部分成本高企、技术落后的产能被永久关闭、拆除， 真正从物理上退出市场。这不仅需要企业决心，更需要配套的产业政策引导。 资本市场可以交易预期，但产业的 ...

笔者认为，目前市场处于博弈阶段，主要交易逻辑是政策预期增强，但光伏终端需求恢复偏弱，价格持 续上行动能仍待验证。中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会也指出，当前多晶硅价格虽已上涨，但基本面支 撑薄弱，供需尚未实质性改善。短期内，硅料价格将维持当前观望中小幅震荡上行的态势。 价格狂欢之余，刚刚披露完毕的光伏中报业绩预告显示，光伏主产业链制造商上半年集体亏损，其余环 节也是多数续亏、首亏，仅少数预增。可见，市场博弈的预期与现实业绩之间差异巨大。 "新三样"产业中，产能出清最迫在眉睫的是光伏。 7月18日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，工信部相关负责人表示，以市场化思维、法治化理念加 强行业治理，推动落后产能有序退出。 "新三样"产业中，产能出清最迫在眉睫的是光伏。 近期，随着高层政策频繁提到"反内卷"，市场博弈减产力度升级逻辑，光伏产业链现货价格跳涨，硅 料、硅片现货市场报价周内跳涨超10%。以硅片为例，全尺寸涨幅超过13%，各环节涨幅分化，N型 G10L单晶硅片涨逾22%，报1.5元/片，系年内单周最高涨幅。 资本市场方面，期货与光伏板块应声上涨，7月18日，多晶硅主力合约盘中创下历史最高，2508合约自6 月25日 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of humanoid robot production due to advancements in AI technology and domestic companies' efforts to replace core components, indicating a broad market opportunity [1][15] - The electric vehicle (EV) sector is entering a deep penetration phase, with new high-cost performance models expected to drive sales growth and stabilize the industry in the medium to long term [2][18] - The renewable energy sector is facing rising upstream raw material prices, which are expected to be passed down the supply chain, potentially leading to price rebounds for solar components [3][24] - The UK government's decision to relax AR7 offshore wind auction entry requirements is anticipated to boost investment enthusiasm and accelerate project implementation in the offshore wind sector [4][27] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The launch of the new industrial humanoid robot Walker S2 by UBTECH enables 24/7 operation with a rapid battery swap system, indicating a significant technological breakthrough [1][15] - The report emphasizes the strong domestic demand for core components and the potential for domestic companies to benefit from this trend [1][15] - Key players in the humanoid robot supply chain are expected to see substantial opportunities as the industry matures [1][17] New Energy Vehicles - The report notes that the introduction of multiple new EV models is likely to enhance user experience and drive sales growth [2][18] - The EV industry is characterized by rapid growth, with new technologies and materials expected to improve performance and reduce costs [2][19] - The report identifies several investment opportunities within the EV supply chain, particularly in battery technology and related components [2][23] Renewable Energy - The report discusses the impact of rising prices for upstream materials like silicon, which are expected to lead to price increases for solar components [3][24] - It highlights the ongoing optimization of battery efficiency and the potential for companies with differentiated high-efficiency products to enhance profitability [3][26] - The report also notes the expected reduction in production from glass manufacturers, which could alleviate inventory and pricing pressures in the solar market [3][26] Offshore Wind Energy - The UK government's relaxation of AR7 offshore wind auction rules is seen as a positive signal for the global offshore wind industry, potentially increasing project participation [4][27] - The report anticipates that the extension of contract terms for difference agreements will further stimulate investment in offshore wind projects [4][28] - Key beneficiaries of this trend are expected to include leading domestic companies involved in offshore wind energy [4][28] Energy Storage - The introduction of capacity pricing policies for energy storage in Gansu province is expected to enhance the profitability of long-duration storage projects [8][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy storage in balancing renewable energy output and improving utilization rates [8][31] - Companies with technological advantages in energy storage are likely to be the first to benefit from these new policies [8][31]

Group 1 - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept rose by 2.76% as of the close on July 17, ranking 8th among concept sectors, with 28 stocks increasing in value [1] - Notable performers within the Hainan Free Trade Zone sector included Caesar Travel, which hit the daily limit, and Hainan Haiyao, Hainan Ruize, and Hainan Qiche Group, which rose by 6.75%, 6.73%, and 6.49% respectively [1] - The sector saw a net inflow of 845 million yuan from main funds, with 21 stocks receiving net inflows, and 8 stocks attracting over 30 million yuan each [2] Group 2 - The top net inflow stock was Hainan Huatie, with a net inflow of 299 million yuan, followed by Caesar Travel, Junda Co., and Hainan Haiyao with net inflows of 150 million yuan, 87 million yuan, and 85 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The net inflow ratios for Caesar Travel, Hainan Mining, and HNA Holding were 37.54%, 12.28%, and 11.60% respectively, indicating strong interest from main funds [3] - The trading volume and turnover rates for key stocks in the Hainan Free Trade Zone included Hainan Huatie at 18.52% turnover and a 4.95% increase, while Caesar Travel had a turnover of 6.64% and a 10.07% increase [3][4]

Group 1 - The A-share market in Hainan Free Trade Zone is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with significant gains in various stocks [1] - Caesar Travel Industry has reached a daily limit increase, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Jun Da Co., Ltd. has risen over 5.5%, reflecting positive market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Hainan Haiyao and Lishang Guochao have both increased by more than 3%, contributing to the overall positive performance of the sector [1] - Haikong Group and other related companies are also seeing upward movement, suggesting a broader rally in the Hainan Free Trade Zone stocks [1]

Group 1: Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) - The second quarter revenue met expectations, with management reaffirming the annual guidance for 2025, indicating low single-digit, mid single-digit, and 50-55% year-on-year revenue growth for Anta, FILA, and other brands respectively [3] - Despite intense industry competition, management maintains growth guidance for all brands, expecting high single-digit, mid single-digit, and over 30% year-on-year growth for Anta, FILA, and other brands respectively [3] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be between RMB 13.41 billion and RMB 16.54 billion, with a target price of HKD 110.20 based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2026, maintaining a buy rating [3][4] Group 2: Junda Co., Ltd. (002865 CH) - The company expects a loss of RMB 0.94 billion to RMB 1.94 billion in Q2 2025, which is an increase from the loss of RMB 1.06 billion in Q1 2025, primarily due to a decline in battery prices following a surge in installations in mainland China [5] - Junda has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Turkey and Europe's largest photovoltaic module manufacturer to jointly build a solar cell production base with a capacity of up to 5GW [5] - The outlook remains positive for the company, anticipating a turnaround in performance in 2026 driven by the commencement of production in Oman and supply-side reforms [5] Group 3: E-commerce Industry - In Q2 2025, adjusted year-on-year growth for physical e-commerce retail sales was 6.3%, with categories like home appliances and cosmetics experiencing a decline in growth [7] - E-commerce platforms are increasing investments in instant retail to drive cross-selling with traditional shelf e-commerce, enhancing user engagement [7] - Major players like Alibaba and JD.com are expected to maintain double-digit year-on-year growth, although profitability may be pressured due to increased investments in flash sales and delivery services [8] Group 4: Economic Data Insights - The consumer price index for June is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.30% in both the US and China, with the previous data being 0.10% [9] - The industrial product factory price index is anticipated to rise by 0.20% year-on-year in the US for June [9]

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 新能源 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 7 月 16 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币 | | 42.75 | 人民币 | 49.82↓ | +16.5% | | | 钧达股份 (002865 CH) | | | | | | | 产品价格偏软下业绩预告符合预期，海外产能布局再下一城 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 7/24 11/24 3/25 7/25 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 002865 CH 深证成指 股份资料 | 52周高位 (人民币) | 80.40 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (人民币) | 34.80 | | 市值 (百万人民币) | 9,538.81 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 11.91 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (16.34) | | 200天平均价 (人民币) | 47.47 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 文昊, CPA bob.we ...

此乃要件 請即處理 閣下如對本通函的任何方面或應採取的行動有任何疑問，應諮詢 閣下的股票經紀或其他註冊證券 交易商、銀行經理、律師、專業會計師或其他專業顧問。 閣下如已將名下的海南鈞達新能源科技股份有限公司的股份全部售出或轉讓，應立即將本通函連同 隨附的代表委任表格送交買主或承讓人，或送交經手買賣或轉讓的銀行、證券經紀或其他代理商， 以便轉交買主或承讓人。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本通函的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本通函全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內 容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. 海南鈞達新能源科技股份有限公司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：02865） (1) 擬議修訂公司章程及相關議事規則以及廢除監事會； (2) 擬議修訂內部治理制度； (3) 擬議選舉及重選董事； (4) 擬議委任及續聘2025年度核數師； (5) 擬議調整獨立非執行董事薪酬； 及 (6) 2025年第三次臨時股東大會通告 本公司將於20 ...

Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. 海南鈞達新能源科技股份有限公司 (A joint stock company incorporated in the People's Republic of China with limited liability) （在中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） Dear registered H shareholder(s), Arrangement of Electronic Dissemination of Corporate Communications Pursuant to Rule 2.07A of the Rules Governing The Listing of Securities on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (the "Listing Rules") under the expansion of paperless listing regime and electronic dissemination of corporate commu ...

此乃要件 請即處理 閣下如對本通函的任何方面或應採取的行動有任何疑問，應諮詢 閣下的股票經紀或其他註冊證券 交易商、銀行經理、律師、專業會計師或其他專業顧問。 閣下如已將名下的海南鈞達新能源科技股份有限公司的股份全部售出或轉讓，應立即將本通函連同 隨附的代表委任表格送交買主或承讓人，或送交經手買賣或轉讓的銀行、證券經紀或其他代理商， 以便轉交買主或承讓人。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本通函的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本通函全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內 容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. 海南鈞達新能源科技股份有限公司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：02865） (1) 擬議修訂公司章程及相關議事規則以及廢除監事會； (2) 擬議修訂內部治理制度； (3) 擬議選舉及重選董事； (4) 擬議委任及續聘2025年度核數師； (5) 擬議調整獨立非執行董事薪酬； 及 (6) 2025年第三次臨時股東大會通告 本公司將於20 ...