山西汾酒：2024年中报点评：结构影响盈利，经营仍有余力

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strong Buy" with a target price of 213 CNY, maintaining the current price of 175.74 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 22.75 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.41 billion CNY, up 24.3% [2]. - The second quarter saw revenue of 7.41 billion CNY, growing 17.1%, and a net profit of 2.15 billion CNY, increasing by 10.2% [2]. - The company maintains a strong revenue growth target of around 20% for the full year, despite some short-term fluctuations in Q2 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2024 increased by 0.4 percentage points, with a net profit margin of 37.0%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - In Q2, the gross margin was 75.1%, down 2.7 percentage points, primarily due to increased volume of lower-margin products [2]. - The company reported a healthy cash flow with a net operating cash flow of 889 million CNY in Q2, despite a 49.9% decline compared to the previous quarter [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected total revenue for 2024 is 38.70 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.2% [12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 13.02 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 24.7% [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 is 10.67 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 times [12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings, particularly in the high-end segment, with expectations of continued strong performance from its flagship products [2]. - The company plans to optimize its distribution channels and improve profitability through strategic pricing adjustments [2]. - The overall market environment remains supportive, with expectations of continued growth in both domestic and international markets [2].