华友钴业：Q2业绩环比大增，镍出货量大幅提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. (603799.SH) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance showed a significant quarter-on-quarter increase, driven by a substantial rise in nickel shipments and improved profitability due to the recovery in nickel prices [3][4] - For H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 30.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.67 billion yuan, down 19.9% year-on-year, which was in line with expectations [2] - Nickel product revenue for Q2 reached 5.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.5%, while nickel intermediate products and cobalt products saw revenue declines [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1.15 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 119.8%, attributed to the gradual ramp-up of upstream nickel resource projects and price recovery [3] - Nickel product shipments increased by 40% year-on-year to 76,000 tons, with nickel intermediate product shipments growing over 90% [3] - The average LME nickel price for H1 2024 was 17,804 USD/ton, with Q2 averaging 18,720 USD/ton, contributing to a gross margin of 21.0% in Q2, up 8.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] Product Performance - The company reported stable growth in product shipments, with Q2 shipments of positive materials increasing over 20% quarter-on-quarter [4] - H1 2024 shipments included 67,000 tons of precursor materials, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and 53,000 tons of positive materials, with a slight year-on-year decline but a significant quarter-on-quarter increase [4] Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 3.79 billion yuan, 4.34 billion yuan, and 4.83 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.0, 8.7, and 7.8 [7] - Despite a downward adjustment in earnings forecasts due to declining profitability in precursor and positive materials, the company is expected to benefit from its global integrated layout and improved profitability from nickel capacity release [7]