YTO(SH:600233) Guoxin Securities·2024-08-28 06:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved rapid growth in Q2 2024, with revenue of 32.57 billion yuan (+20.6%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.99 billion yuan (+6.8%) for the first half of 2024. In Q2 alone, revenue was 17.14 billion yuan (+21.7%) and net profit was 1.04 billion yuan (+9.4%) [1][5]. - The volume of packages handled increased significantly, with a total of 12.20 billion packages in the first half of 2024 (+24.8%), surpassing the industry growth rate by 1.7 percentage points. The market share increased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.4% in Q2 2024 [1][9]. - The company focused on cost optimization, leading to a decrease in transportation costs per package by 8.8% to 0.39 yuan and a reduction in center operation costs by 6.3% to 0.26 yuan in Q2 2024 [1][10]. - Capital expenditure increased, with 2.70 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 and 1.30 billion yuan in Q2, compared to 2.26 billion yuan and 1.09 billion yuan in the same periods of the previous year. The company is also expanding its international business, with a 65.5% increase in revenue from international express and parcel services [1][10]. Financial Forecasts - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 4.36 billion yuan, 5.17 billion yuan, and 6.00 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +17%, +19%, and +16% [1][10]. - Revenue projections for the next few years are as follows: 2024E at 66.10 billion yuan (+14.6%), 2025E at 74.04 billion yuan (+12.0%), and 2026E at 82.19 billion yuan (+11.0%) [2][11].