恒立液压：Revenue acceleration with margin expansion in 2Q24; new products development on track

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangsu Hengli is maintained at a target price of RMB 64.00, representing a 33.0% upside from the current price of RMB 48.12 [2]. Core Insights - Jiangsu Hengli reported a revenue growth of 22% year-on-year in 2Q24, with EBIT surging 58% year-on-year to RMB 644 million, driven by a surprising gross margin expansion of 6.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is experiencing positive developments, with increasing contributions from non-excavator components and a fast production ramp-up in key products such as ball screws and electric cylinders [2][3]. - The hydraulic components production base in Mexico is expected to commence operations in December, with a designed annual output value of US$450 million [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected to reach RMB 10,033 million, reflecting an 11.7% year-on-year growth, while adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 2,757 million, a 10.3% increase [11][14]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve to 42.2% in FY24E, up from 41.9% in FY23A [14]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to be 27.5% in FY24E, slightly down from 27.8% in FY23A [13][14]. Revenue Breakdown - Non-excavator cylinders sales volume increased by 21.5% year-on-year to 139,000 units in 1H24, driven by demand for tunnel boring machines, cranes, and aerial work platforms [2]. - Revenue from non-excavator cylinders grew approximately 20% to RMB 1.3 billion, while revenue from excavator cylinders decreased by 13.5% year-on-year to RMB 1.1 billion [2]. Key Ratios and Valuation - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 25.8 in FY23A to 23.4 in FY24E, indicating a more attractive valuation [11][14]. - The P/B ratio is expected to decline from 4.5 in FY23A to 4.0 in FY24E, reflecting a strengthening balance sheet [11][14]. - The dividend yield is projected to increase from 1.5% in FY23A to 1.6% in FY24E, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [11][14].