Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating [1][3] Core Views - The company faces pressure on single-store revenue due to intense competition in the ready-to-drink tea market [2] - The company continues to expand in lower-tier cities and overseas markets, but single-store revenue is under pressure [3] - The company is expected to optimize its products and supply chain to improve performance [2] Financial Performance - 2024H1 revenue: RMB 2.396 billion, down 10.0% YoY [3] - Adjusted net profit for 2024H1: RMB 395 million, down 34% YoY [3] - Adjusted net profit margin: 16.5%, down 6 percentage points YoY [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 237 million, down 59.7% YoY [3] - Gross profit: RMB 760 million, down 18.6% YoY, with a gross margin of 31.7%, down 3.4 percentage points YoY [3] - Sales expense ratio: 4.4%, up 2.7 percentage points YoY [3] - Management expense ratio: 9.1%, up 2.1 percentage points YoY [3] - R&D expense ratio: 0.6%, up 0.4 percentage points YoY [3] Store Expansion and Performance - Total stores as of 2024H1: 8,385, up 20.6% YoY [3] - New stores opened in 2024H1: 826, with 245 closures [3] - Annualized closure rate: 6.2% in 2024H1, up from 3% in 2023H1 [3] - Stores in fourth-tier and below cities account for 24% of total stores [3] - Overseas expansion: 4 stores in South Korea, 2 in Thailand, and 1 in Australia as of 2024H1 [3] - Single-store revenue declined by 26% YoY, mainly due to a decrease in average cup volume per store [3] - Cup prices are expected to decline slightly [3] Future Projections - Adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 965 million (-23% YoY), RMB 1.044 billion (+8% YoY), and RMB 1.101 billion (+6% YoY) respectively [3] - PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 9x, 8x, and 8x respectively [3] Market Data - Current stock price: HKD 6.30 [2] - 52-week price range: HKD 6.10 to HKD 13.00 [6] - Current market capitalization: HKD 9.309 billion [6]
茶百道2024年中报业绩点评：单店收入承压，下沉与海外门店扩张