公元股份：业绩短暂承压，行业出清龙头集中度有望提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 3.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.50%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 125 million, down 26.54% year-on-year. However, Q2 showed a revenue of 1.907 billion, a decrease of 6.82% year-on-year, but a net profit of 111 million, an increase of 17.95% year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend [1] - The report highlights that the decline in performance is primarily due to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in expense ratio, while the profit growth in Q2 is attributed to a reduction in impairment losses [1] - The company is expected to face challenges due to the downturn in the real estate sector, leading to a slight downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company's solar energy business generated revenue of 508 million in the first half of 2024, a decrease of 3.08% year-on-year, with profitability impacted by significant price declines [3] - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 19.5%, down 2.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio increased by 1.93 percentage points [4] - The company’s net profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 4.14%, a decline of 0.82 percentage points year-on-year, but Q2 showed an improvement with a net profit margin of 5.94%, an increase of 1.04 percentage points year-on-year [4] Revenue and Cost Analysis - The pipeline business reported revenue of 2.452 billion, down 16.03% year-on-year, with specific segments like PVC, PPR, and PE pipes experiencing revenue declines of 23.43%, 7.47%, and 8.20% respectively [2] - The average prices of key raw materials such as PVC, HDPE, and PPR remained stable, with slight year-on-year changes [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 at 340 million, 370 million, and 400 million respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 13.8, 12.8, and 11.6 [1][5] - The solar energy segment is anticipated to benefit from global green recovery trends, despite current challenges [3]