山西汾酒：第二季度归母净利润同比增长10%，青花系列主动控速

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [3][4][5] Core Views - In Q2 2024, the company's revenue grew by 17.1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 10.2%. For the first half of 2024, total revenue reached 22.746 billion yuan, up 19.6% year-on-year, and net profit was 8.410 billion yuan, up 24.3% year-on-year [4][5] - The decline in profit growth in Q2 is attributed to the company's proactive inventory control of the Qinghua series. The high-end liquor segment generated revenue of 4.567 billion yuan, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, while other liquor categories saw revenue of 2.796 billion yuan, a significant increase of 58.3% [4][5] - The company is expected to recover growth in the second half of the year, particularly in the Qinghua series, as it prepares for the peak sales seasons of Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 7.408 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.147 billion yuan. The gross margin decreased by 2.7 percentage points to 75.1% [4][5] - For the first half of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 22.746 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.410 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.6% and 24.3%, respectively [4][5] Market and Product Analysis - The company is focusing on deepening its national presence, with Q2 2024 revenue from Shanxi province at 2.797 billion yuan (up 11.2% year-on-year) and from outside Shanxi at 4.566 billion yuan (up 21.78% year-on-year) [4][5] - The number of distributors increased by 478 in Q2 2024, indicating a strengthening of the distribution network [4][5] Profitability and Forecast - The company maintains a stable expense ratio, with operating cash flow in Q2 2024 at 0.889 billion yuan, down 49.9% year-on-year. The expected revenue for 2024-2025 is projected at 38.463 billion yuan and 45.392 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5% and 18.0% [4][5][6] - The forecast for net profit in 2024-2025 is adjusted to 12.735 billion yuan and 15.331 billion yuan, with growth rates of 22.0% and 20.4% [6][7]