中泰股份：订单确认节奏致业绩短期承压，海外市场发力利润修复可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhongtai Co., Ltd. (300435.SZ) [2] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue at 1.368 billion yuan, down 18.18% year-on-year, and net profit at 123 million yuan, down 33% [3] - The decrease in revenue is attributed to a high base in the previous year and a delay in the delivery of high-margin overseas orders, leading to short-term pressure on the equipment business [3] - Despite the short-term challenges, the company has a strong order backlog, with orders increasing by 33.5% year-on-year, and overseas markets are expected to drive revenue and margin recovery [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The stock has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a 26% decline [2] Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company achieved operating income of 1.368 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.18%, and a net profit of 123 million yuan, a decline of 33% [3] - The equipment sales revenue was 498 million yuan, down 9.6%, with a gross margin of 30.5%, a decrease of 4.6 percentage points [3] - The cash flow from operating activities was 204 million yuan, an increase of 86.1% year-on-year [3] Order Backlog and Market Outlook - As of June 30, 2024, the company had an order backlog of 2.132 billion yuan, up 33.5% year-on-year, with over 30% of these orders from overseas markets [3] - The company has been expanding its presence in international markets, benefiting from the global olefin investment boom [3] Cost and Expense Analysis - The company’s period expense ratio was 6.93%, an increase of 1.84 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising management expenses [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report adjusts the revenue forecast for 2024-2026, expecting revenues of 2.881 billion yuan, 3.399 billion yuan, and 3.789 billion yuan, with growth rates of -5.5%, 18%, and 11.5% respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 296 million yuan, 405 million yuan, and 525 million yuan, with growth rates of -15.4%, 36.7%, and 29.8% respectively [4]