YTCO(600066) 国海证券·2024-08-28 10:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus (600066) [1] Core Views - Yutong Bus achieved strong performance in 2024Q2, driven by both volume growth and product mix improvement [1] - The company's profitability improved significantly, with gross margin reaching 26.10% (+2.61pct YoY) and net margin at 10.53% (+5.85pct YoY) in 2024Q2 [4] - Export business contributed substantially to performance, with export volume reaching 0.39k units (+42% YoY) and accounting for 30.4% of total sales in 2024Q2 [4] - New energy vehicle exports grew 79% YoY in H1 2024, outperforming industry average, with significant orders from Europe and South America [4] Financial Performance - 2024H1 revenue reached RMB 16.34 billion (+46.99% YoY), with net profit of RMB 1.67 billion (+255.84% YoY) [3] - 2024Q2 revenue was RMB 9.72 billion (+28.95% YoY, +46.91% QoQ), with net profit of RMB 1.02 billion (+190.63% YoY, +54.74% QoQ) [3] - Export revenue per vehicle reached RMB 758k (+7.5% YoY), with gross profit per vehicle at RMB 197.8k (+19.5% YoY) [4] Market Outlook - Domestic market benefited from tourism recovery and new energy bus replacement policy, with potential replacement demand of 36k-55k units [2] - Export market expected to maintain strong growth, especially in new energy vehicle segment [4] - Revenue forecast for 2024-2026: RMB 31.91 billion (+18%), RMB 35.59 billion (+12%), RMB 38.99 billion (+10%) [5] - Net profit forecast for 2024-2026: RMB 3.44 billion (+89%), RMB 3.97 billion (+15%), RMB 4.57 billion (+15%) [5] Valuation Metrics - 2024E P/E: 13.74x, 2025E P/E: 11.90x, 2026E P/E: 10.32x [6] - 2024E P/B: 3.32x, 2025E P/B: 3.13x, 2026E P/B: 2.86x [6] - 2024E ROE: 24%, 2025E ROE: 26%, 2026E ROE: 28% [6]