山西汾酒：上半年韧性增长，腰部发力显著

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating expected stock performance to exceed the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [11]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient growth in the first half of 2024, with revenue and net profit increasing by 19.65% and 24.27% year-on-year, respectively [4][5]. - The company is undergoing channel reforms amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment, balancing reform progress with revenue and profit growth [8]. - The company is expected to focus on high-end products and improve product structure in the second half of 2024, particularly during the Mid-Autumn Festival [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 227.46 billion yuan and a net profit of 84.1 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 76.69% [4][5]. - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 74.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.06% [4]. - The company's revenue from high-end liquor reached 164.27 billion yuan in H1 2024, up 17.38% year-on-year, while other liquor categories saw a 27.36% increase [5]. - The company’s cash flow from sales in H1 2024 was 215.95 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.96% increase year-on-year [5]. Profitability and Forecast - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2024-2026 at 19.05%, 15.79%, and 14.62%, respectively, with net profit growth of 24.13%, 16.65%, and 14.43% [8][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 10.62, 12.39, and 14.18 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16, 13, and 12 [9][10].