TNMG(SZ:000630) Huachuang Securities·2024-08-28 14:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Tongling Nonferrous Metals [2][4]. Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a record high net profit attributable to shareholders in a single quarter, driven by rising prices of copper and sulfuric acid [3][4]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in copper concentrate production and the upcoming production of copper foil, which will enhance its earnings [4][5]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 40.35 billion, 44.17 billion, and 50.34 billion respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 715.09 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.81 billion, up 6.24% year-on-year [2][3]. - The cash flow from operating activities reached 22.76 billion, reflecting a substantial increase of 77.34% year-on-year [2][3]. - The second quarter saw a revenue of 387.89 billion, marking a 12.56% increase year-on-year and an 18.55% increase quarter-on-quarter [3]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The company produced 1.7563 million tons of cathode copper in 2023, accounting for 13.52% of the domestic total, with plans for further production increases [4]. - The Mirador copper mine phase II project is expected to be completed by June 2025, potentially adding 250,000 tons of copper metal output annually [4]. - The copper foil production capacity is set to reach 55,000 tons, with trial production commencing soon, which is anticipated to further boost earnings [4]. Valuation and Price Target - The target price is set at 3.78 yuan, based on a 12x PE ratio for 2024, reflecting the company's valuation compared to peers [4][5].