TKGF(SH:601233) Xinda Securities·2024-08-29 01:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH) is "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The report highlights the recovery in the long filament and refining industries, indicating that the company's performance potential is gradually being released. The overall oil price showed a stable trend after a peak in the first half of 2024, with the average Brent oil price at $83.05 per barrel, a year-on-year increase of 4% [1][2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 48.215 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.67%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.065 billion yuan, a significant increase of 911.35% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the polyester segment will continue to recover, benefiting from the gradual improvement in the long filament industry, with the average cash flow per ton for POY/FDY/DTY showing positive trends [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 48.215 billion yuan, up 30.67% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.065 billion yuan, up 911.35% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share reached 0.45 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1025.00% [1]. - For Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 27.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.16%, but a net profit of 0.485 billion yuan, which was a decrease of 18.50% year-on-year [1]. Industry Outlook - The report notes that the refining industry is expected to accelerate consolidation, with Zhejiang Petrochemical's contribution to the company's profits likely to increase. The refining capacity in China is projected to undergo significant changes, with a focus on eliminating outdated capacities [2]. - The long filament industry is expected to see limited new capacity in the second half of 2024, which, combined with seasonal demand, may enhance the company's performance elasticity [1][2]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 2.275 billion yuan, 3.398 billion yuan, and 4.138 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 185.5%, 49.4%, and 21.8% [2]. - The report estimates the diluted EPS for the same period to be 0.94 yuan, 1.41 yuan, and 1.72 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.39, 8.29, and 6.81 times [2].