WLY(SZ:000858) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-08-29 01:40Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Wuliangye (000858.SZ) with a target price of 168.74 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [4][10]. Core Views - The company continues to achieve double-digit growth in Q2 2024, with performance in line with expectations. The main brand shows stable performance, and the structure of strong aroma liquor is upgrading. The company has successfully controlled volume while maintaining prices, and the product matrix is gradually improving, ensuring the annual growth target is achievable [2][10]. Financial Summary - For H1 2024, Wuliangye reported revenue of 50.648 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.057 billion CNY, up 11.9%. Q2 2024 revenue grew by 10.1%, and net profit increased by 11.5%, continuing the trend of double-digit growth [10]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 75.0%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 31.7%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. The increase in gross margin was attributed to higher promotional expenses due to channel costs and red envelope distributions [10]. - Cash flow remains strong, with sales cash receipts in Q2 2024 reaching 27.88 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 93%. As of the end of Q2 2024, contract liabilities amounted to 8.16 billion CNY, up 31.1% from Q1 2024 and 45.1% year-on-year [10]. Product and Channel Performance - In H1 2024, Wuliangye's main product, Wuliangye liquor, generated revenue of 39.2 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11% (volume +12%, price -1%). The gross margin for this product was 86.69%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. The company expects continued growth in its 1618 and low-alcohol products [10]. - Revenue from other liquors reached 7.9 billion CNY, up 18% year-on-year (volume -24%, price +55%), with a gross margin of 62.23%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the optimization of strong aroma liquor structure and an increase in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products [10]. - The company has been actively expanding its product matrix, launching upgraded versions of its products and enhancing its brand value across various price segments [10].