WLY(SZ:000858) Soochow Securities·2024-08-29 02:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 50.6 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, with a net profit of 19.06 billion yuan, up 11.9% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [3] - The company's high-end liquor sales have shown significant improvement due to strong execution of its pricing strategy, with a notable increase in channel status [3] - The gross profit margin has slightly decreased, but the main contribution comes from the management fee rate [3] - The company is expected to maintain a steady sales momentum for its flagship product, with a positive outlook for the medium to long-term price space [4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The total revenue forecast for 2024 is 91.689 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.11% [2] - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 33.406 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.58% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 8.61 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.25 [2] - The company’s market capitalization corresponds to a P/E of 13, 12, and 10 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2024, the company's liquor revenue grew by 12.5%, with high-priced and mid-to-low-priced liquor increasing by 11.4% and 17.8% respectively [3] - The high-priced liquor segment saw a volume increase of 12.1% but a slight price decrease of 0.6% [3] - The eastern and western regions contributed significantly to revenue growth, with increases of 15.7% and 16.7% respectively [3] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a cash collection ratio of 98.0% in H1 2024, with a significant increase in contract liabilities [3] - The net profit margin remained stable year-on-year, with a slight increase in Q2 due to management fee rate adjustments and government subsidies [3] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 187.956 billion yuan by 2024, with a debt ratio of 18.62% [7][11]